EUR/USD upside limited on lingering Fed - BTMU

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that they have narrowed their range back again after the gain for the dollar last week in the aftermath of the stronger than expected jobs report from the US.

    Key Quotes:

    "EUR/USD has consolidated though, as we expected, and we guess we might get more of the same next week again. We toyed with going bullish – the price action today in the aftermath of dovish comments from ECB President Draghi does strongly signal that monetary easing by the ECB is fully priced. Therefore, it is more about news from the US that might drive rate hike expectations further."

    "We do have retail sales tomorrow and CPI next week and these two reports will be most important. However, there is still just under five weeks to the next FOMC and in that context, the markets are unlikely to price more than the current 65/70% probability currently in the price. In fact there might not be much movement in expectations until the next employment report on 4th December."

    "The Fed speaking schedule is lighter next week but in any case after all the comments last week and this week, it is pretty clear that the Fed intends to go on 16th December unless something catastrophic happens in the meantime. So we stay neutral."

    "Given we toyed with turning bullish that’s the risk (the risk to the risk bias!). Certainly if the equity market selling today was to extend for another day or two you may see EUR/USD rebound a touch, although with the Fed lingering, the upside should be limited."
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