Eurozone CPI preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 29, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The EUR/USD pair has failed to sustain above its 100-DMA located at 1.0949 levels, but remains moderately positive ahead of the preliminary Eurozone CPI release.

    Weak CPI could strengthen case for more ECB easing

    The CPI y/y is seen rising 0.1% in February, compared to January figure of 0.3%. The core figure is seen slowing to 0.9% from January figure of 1.0%. The data would set the tone for the next week’s ECB rate decision.

    Markets are expecting another 10 basis points rate cut by ECB. The bank is widely expected to increase its QE purchases by EUR 10-30 billion per month. However, the odds of a weaker-than-expected figure are high, given the German CPI fell more than expected in February.

    If the CPI is weaker-than-expected it would heighten speculation of a more aggressive ECB action and that could send EUR/USD below 1.09 handle. On the other hand, a positive surprise could help EUR move back above 100-DMA; especially if the equities stay risk-off.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    The spot trades around 1.0930. The immediate resistance is located at 1.0975 (50-DMA + rising trend line resistance), above which the pair could target 1.10 (5-DMA). A break higher could see the spot make a run at a major hurdle at 1.1045 (200-DMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.0908 (daily low) could see prices drift lower to 1.0870 (Dec 23 low), which if breached may see the pair test bids around 1.0845 (61.8% of 1.0517-1.1376).
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