Eurozone GDP posts decent Q4 growth, but industrial production collapses - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Teunis Brosens, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3%QoQ in the fourth quarter, Eurostat’s flash estimate shows, corresponding to 1.5%YoY.

    Key Quotes

    “Spain was again the top performer, expanding by 0.8%QoQ. Greece posted another disappointing -0.6%QoQ, showing that the economy still hasn’t recovered from the Grexit panic earlier in the year. Italy disappointed as well, eking out a meagre 0.1%QoQ, suggesting that what little momentum there was, is already fizzling out again. Finland entered a technical recession, recording a second quarter with (barely) negative growth of -0.1%QoQ.

    But overall, the Eurozone recovery continued at its modest cruising speed in Q4. Amidst the recent market turmoil and “risk off” attitude, this positive news almost seems a ghost from a distant past. Sure enough, there was less upbeat news as well: Eurozone December industrial production nosedived -1.3%MoM, much worse than expected. While this is partly an energy story caused by the much warmer than usual winter weather, there was weakness in other industries as well, with the notable exception of durable consumer goods.

    Q4 GDP growth confirms that while the Eurozone recovery progressed, it remained stuck in second gear. Weak industrial production shows that the Eurozone is not immune to weakness in emerging markets, let alone to a wavering US economy. Then again, new order intake does not look all that bad: new orders, while volatile, are still trending upwards, both from within and outside the Eurozone. In sum, while certainly not all is great in the Eurozone, the state of the economy does not warrant the jittery markets we are witnessing this week.”
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