Eurozone: Pace of activity had picked up a little in Q4 2015 – Lloyds Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Nikesh Sawjani, Financial Economist at Lloyds Bank, suggests that this week’s final print of Eurozone PMIs for December supported other Eurozone data releases of late, in suggesting that the pace of activity had picked up a little in Q4 2015.

    Key Quotes

    “This view is expected to be reiterated by today's December economic confidence and business climate indices which are expected to chime with a moderate strengthening of GDP in Q4. However, as the weaker-than-expected inflation numbers earlier this week highlighted, questions remain over the pace at which this pickup in activity will feed through into higher inflation, particularly given the amount of spare capacity within the euro area. This is expected to be highlighted by the release of the November labour market report, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 10.7%. Euro area retail sales data for November are due and we expect a third consecutive monthly decline.

    Ahead of these, releases from Germany in the shape of retail sales and factory orders will provide an update on the health of the euro area’s largest economy. In contrast to the wider euro area measure, a firm rebound of 0.5% in retail sales is expected to underscore the support to the German economy from private consumption, while factory orders are forecast to rise by 0.1%.

    In Canada, amidst the growing expectation that the Bank of Canada may be forced to lower its benchmark interest rate, a speech by Governor Poloz on policy divergence following last month’s Fed rate hike will provide this afternoon’s focus. While in the US, Richmond Fed President Lacker (non-voter in 2016) speaks on the US economic outlook at 13:45 GMT."
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