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EURUSD sets its sights on the 200 dma and 55 wma after breaking 1.1200

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ForexLive, Jun 14, 2016.

  1. ForexLive

    ForexLive Forum Member

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    EURUSD through the 100 dma and 1.1200 While eyes are on the pound the euro isn't having a good day. We've crunched the 100 dma at 1.1213, and then the big figure, which is already resisting as I type.

    Read full forex technical analysis here
     
  2. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Tuesday, slicing through the 100 day exponential moving average. However, there is quite a bit of support and noise just below the 1.12 level, so it’s likely that we will see quite a bit of volatility. Ultimately, we get the FOMC Statement coming out today and that will more than likely be what drives his pair more than anything else. With this being the case, I believe that we will test the support below, but if it holds it could be an excellent buying opportunity.
     
  3. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD recovers further, 1.1100 on sight
    The shared currency is extending its rebound from daily lows in the 1.09 area vs. the greenback, pushing EUR/USD to the current 1.1065/70 band.

    EUR/USD weaker on ‘Brexit’ vote

    Spot has quickly plummeted to the 1.0900 neighbourhood after the EU-UK Referendum showed the ‘Leave’ option clinched a tight win with nearly 52% of the votes, catching markets off-guard after poll results on Thursday were pointing to a ‘Remain’ victory.

    All eyes are now on the European markets, with German Bund yields tumbling to record lows and equity markets expected to trade deep in the red territory.

    In the data space, the German IFO is due, although its results should be largely ignored against the current effervescent backdrop.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    The pair is now losing 2.71% at 1.1075 and a break below 1.0913 (low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1259 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1296 (55-day sma) and then 1.1427 (high Jun.23).
     
  4. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD


    The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.

    The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.

    The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.


    Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.

    A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

    The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.

    A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.

    Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.
     
  5. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate overall. We have broken down below and uptrend line recently, and have even retested it for resistance. Because of this, I feel there is a significant amount of downward pressure in this market building up. However, today is Nonfarm Payroll Friday, and that means anything can happen. I would not be willing to buy this pair until we break out and above the former uptrend line. As far selling is concerned, I’m willing to sell on signs of weakness as they appear, as I believe the market will probably try to reach towards the 1.09 level below.
     
  6. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD got a boost to eight-session highs of 1.1164 into the N.Y. open, though it appeared all the upside was from playing piggy-back to cable, which rallied over 200 points after the BoE remained on hold. Since then, the market has had a change of heart, with the euro heading briefly under 1.1100, before steadying at 1.1120-30. As has been the case for over a week, EUR/USD was unable to close above 1.1100 on Wednesday, and it remains to be seen if the pairing can pull off that feat today.

    Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the 9-day moving average of the spread.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  8. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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