Expect a positive UK jobs report, continue to favour EURGBP downside - BNP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Bali) - BNP UK economists expect a robust September UK labour report, and prefer to manifest this view by continuing to call for a lower EUR/GBP.

    Key Quotes

    "Another solid rise in employment should translate into the unemployment rate falling to a new cyclical low of 5.3%."

    "While this would signal further tightening in labour market conditions, this is unlikely to be reflected this month in the wages data, mainly due to base effects from strong monthly gains the same period last year."

    "We remain of the view that markets are under-pricing the timing of the first BoE rate hike and pace of tightening thereafter."

    "We are exposed to EURGBP downside via a 0.72/0.68/0.64 put fly recommendation expiring in January and we are biased to sell any EURGBP rallies to position for an eventual break below 0.70."
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