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EZ CPI's on the radar next week - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the key Euro Area / Germany CPI's coming up on the 29 & 30 Oct.

    Key Quotes:

    "The days of negative CPI readings are numbered for the euro area. Under almost any reasonable set of assumptions, headline CPI will start increasing at a fairly steady clip in coming months as last year’s energy price falls begin to drop out of the calculations.

    We see upside risks to Thursday’s German CPI inflation for October, with a forecast of 0.2% y/y (consensus: +0.1%). The same goes for Thursday’s euro area aggregate print, where we expect a 0.1% y/y reading (markets: 0.0% y/y), up from -0.1% y/y in September.

    Any downside surprises will translate into higher real interest rates, something that the ECB mentioned repeatedly at its October press conference. The German IFO survey for October is also out, and while both current conditions and expectations have held up relatively well in recent months, despite volatility in markets, we see downside risks across the board for October, reinforcing the ECB’s easing bias."
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