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FOMC: eyes on the dot plot - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts at TD Securities explained that beyond the adjustments to the macro projections, the evolution of the dot plot will garner far more attention.

    Key Quotes:

    "The relatively concentrated distribution of expectations in 2016 creates a very low bar for the median to shift lower, which in turns makes it likely that the 2017 and 2018 median dot will also move lower by 25bps:

    2016: A 25bps shift lower in just two of the seven dots concentrated at the December median of 1.375% (four hikes) will pull the median down to 1.125% (three hikes), which an outcome consistent with the dovish members on the committee focused on the downside risks to the outlook. A more substantial shift lower to just two hikes is unlikely, as it requires five members to scale back their expectations by 50bps each.

    2017: If the dots that are expected to shift lower in 2016 are not offset by an additional hike in 2017, the median dot will shift lower to 2.125% which still implies 100bps of hikes. To cut the median expectation to just three hikes, all four committee members at the median would need to lower their expectation by 50bps in 2017.

    2018 & Longer-Run: There is a chance that the median 2018dot will move lower to 3.00% from 3.25%, though this would require there are no catchup hikes that follow downward revisions

    over the prior two years. Moreover, there is a 35% chance that the terminal fed funds rate is cut by 25bps to 3.25%, which has traditionally been accompanied by a downwards revision to the longer-run forecast for real GDP."
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