FOMC: Low inflation and weak global economy don’t warrant a March rate hike – BBVA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Kim Chase, Research Analyst at BBVA, suggests that today is the day to watch, with a Fed announcement as well as a wave of game-changing economic data for February.

    Key Quotes

    “First and foremost is the March FOMC meeting, which we hope will provide some significant details on the future of Fed policy. While we do not expect another rate increase this month, we are likely to see some changes in the FOMC’s economic projections. In particular, the Committee is likely to revise down their projected path of interest rates – probably to just three instead of four rate increases in 2016.

    Furthermore, Chair Yellen’s press conference will likely touch on the latest developments in global financial markets and how much the ongoing volatility has really impacted the Fed’s outlook. She is also likely to provide some commentary on other lingering concerns such as inflation and negative interest rates. Inflation is expected to continue moving slowly in support of the Fed’s target, with February’s CPI report projected to show monthly gains for both the headline and core figures. As always, it is important to remember that core CPI typically runs about 0.5% higher than core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure), which currently sits just below 1.7%.

    Industrial Production and Housing Starts Supporting Modest Growth in 1Q16: Other economic news on Wednesday include industrial production and housing starts for February. Industrial production is coming off an unusually strong showing to star the year following three consecutive months of decline. However, the drastic gains seen in utilities and manufacturing output are unlikely to be repeated again in February. Housing starts, on the other hand, are expected to reverse the negative trend of the previous two months and increase back near levels seen in late 2015. Continued positive momentum in both indicators will help encourage a more positive economic outlook among FOMC members.”
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