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FOMC: Markets relaxed with 25bps priced in - SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that markets are going into the final FOMC announcement of 2015 expecting a rate hike but, on the surface at least, relatively relaxed that it is priced in.

    Key Quotes

    “Oil prices are close to their lows but have found some temporary stability. Asian equity indices have bounced. 2-year Treasury yields are higher -at 97bp this morning – but 10s at 2.26 are merely trading within their recent range – just below their average level of the last 5 years.”

    “Our US economics team suggest that having already lowered growth projections and the ‘dots’ showing expectations of the path of Fed Funds going forwards, we are more likely to see the estimate of the longer-term Fed Funds rate edged down (to 3.25% from 3.5%) than any further ‘dot-adjustment’.”

    “As for markets in the coming days, I think the rest of us take our cue from Treasuries. Insouciance reigns at the moment, but can it persist? If 10s stay close to today’s levels, I don’t see much of a move in USD/JPY or EUR/USD. But I do think that in the long run, there is enough momentum, in the US economy for yields to edge higher and that will drag the Euro lower. I also think that any upward momentum in Treasury yields will keep emerging markets nervous, will be followed by a re-focus on the other major central bank whose policies are in play - the PBoC – and support the yen relative to emerging market and resource currencies.”
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