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FOMC meeting: What is coming your way? - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that they do not think that economic and financial developments since the December FOMC meeting have evolved as the FOMC expected.

    Key Quotes

    “Economic data, with the notable exception of the employment report, have generally suggested less economic activity than expected. Financial markets have been volatile and conditions have tightened significantly. Consistent with Yellen’s comments above, these developments have reduced the probability that the FOMC will change policy anytime soon.

    The key issue for this week is the degree to which the FOMC acknowledges, in its statement, that circumstances have changed and consequently its expectations for policy have changed (after raising rates for the first time in December, we did not expect the FOMC to raise or lower rates at the very next meeting). We believe the shortfall in economic data and the tightening of financial conditions are too significant for the FOMC to ignore.

    We think these unexpected circumstances will be reflected in the FOMC statement in a number of ways.

    First, we expect the FOMC to note that incoming data suggest economic growth has slowed.

    Second, we expect the FOMC to suggest that recent declines in oil prices are likely to delay the recovery of inflation back to the FOMC’s 2% target.

    Third, we expect the FOMC to state that it is monitoring foreign and financial developments, in addition to inflation, as it considers future policy changes.

    Finally, we expect the FOMC’s forward-looking assessment to acknowledge that the balance of risks has become more adverse.

    However, we do not think the FOMC will change key policy language or send an explicit signal about the likelihood and/or probable timing of future policy changes. In effect, we think the FOMC will use its assessment of recent developments and the balance of risks to signal how its expectations for policy are evolving, rather than addressing the outlook for policy directly.”
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