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FOMC minutes preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 18, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - At 19:00 GMT, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of its October 27-28 meeting where investors will be looking for signs that confirm a rate hike in December.

    The Fed made some hawkish shifts to its October statement, mentioning that it will determine “whether it would be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting”. The bank also opted to remove the line "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the near term" from its last statement that made reference to global headwinds.

    In the weeks that followed October meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has stated that December is a live meeting and the eventual decision to raise rates will be data dependent. Last month’s nonfarm payroll report was much stronger than anticipated (271K vs 180K) fueling the case for a lift-off.

    The dollar could benefit from hawkish minutes while a perceived dovish tone is likely to be largely disregarded, given that the minutes were originated before the strong nonfarm payrolls report, published on Nov 6.

    FOMC members accross the wires


    On Wednesday ahead of the minutes, three FOMC members were speaking. Fed’s member Lacker, the only dissenter on the FOMC, said that improvement seen in the US labor market has been substantial adding that the probability that the Fed will get behind the curve is increasing.

    Another member, Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester said that the US economy is able to cope with a 25 bps rate raise. Finally, Dennis Lockhart affirmed his view that the FOMC should begin the process of normalisation with conditions now relatively settled.

    EUR/USD levels to watch


    A hawkish tone will likely trigger another bullish leg in the greenback that could drag EUR/USD below 1.0622 (7-month low Nov 18) with next bearish targets seen at 1.0570 (Apr 15 low) and 1.0520 (Apr 13 low).

    In the longer run, and given divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the ECB, EUR/USD could continue to trend lower towards 1.0460, which is the 2015 low.

    On the other hand, the dollar could face some corrective flows, with EUR/USD bouncing towards the 1.0700 zone. Above this latter, next resistances could be faced at 1.0735 (10-day SMA), 1.0757 (Nov 16 high) and then 1.0829 (Nov 12 high).
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