FOMC Minutes preview, what to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The Federal Open Market Committee will publish the minutes of its March 15-16 meeting at 18:00 GMT and investors will be scrutinizing the Fed’s language after the "dot plot" chart revealed that most FOMC members revised down their expectation for the appropriate path of the fed funds rate.

    Minutes will provide some context to the dovish policy statement and the downward revision to the dots.

    Over the last weeks, several FOMC members, including Chair Yellen have spoken, sending mixed signals. It seems to be a growing dichotomy between Fed’s Chair and other members and minutes might help to shed some light over this issue.

    However, all members have reiterated that every meeting is a “live” meeting and decision on the path of future rates remains data-dependent.

    What to expect of EUR/USD?

    If minutes turned out to be less dovish than Yellen’s recent comments, the US dollar could benefit although gains would probably remain short-lived in the absence of a clear sign next hike is around the corner.

    On the other hand, a dovish stance and worrisome assessment of global economic risks and financial developments will likely have the opposite effect on the greenback.

    Ahead of the minutes, EUR/USD was trading above 1.1400 amid broad USD weakness, with next resistances lining up at 1.1437 (2016 high, Apr 1), 1.1494 (Oct 15 high) and 1.1560 (Aug 26 high). On the flip side, short-term supports are seen at 1.1309 (Mar 31 low), 1.1287 (10-day SMA) and 1.1251 (20-day SMA).
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