FOMC Minutes to shed light on hawkish changes - RBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 18, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at RBS, suggests that the release of FOMC October meeting minutes should shed light on two meaningful hawkish changes included in the FOMC statement.

    Key Quotes

    “The discussion around removing the phrase “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the near term” should be important. The FOMC may signal greater confidence in the global outlook after policy easing by the PBoC and a strong signal of new accommodation from the ECB. These minutes pertain to a meeting that took place before the FOMC saw the very strong October employment report.”

    “Also of note within the FOMC minutes will be any discussion of communication or normalization strategy. Communication about the expected path of interest rates beyond the first move has, for the most part, been broad in scope.”

    “The FOMC “dot plot” gives an indication of individual FOMC members’ views on the path. But in terms of signaling language, the FOMC has given little specific guidance beyond that it will take a “balanced approach” to future rate rises and that the path of rate rises will likely be gradual, leaving rates below levels viewed as normal for some time.”

    “In terms of any new communication strategy, there may be adjustments to the Summary of Economic Projections – any change in the SEP prior to the December meeting would likely be detailed in the minutes.”
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