FOMC: Shifting balance – Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that it came as no surprise that the FOMC kept the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50% range.

    Key Quotes

    “As we expected the Committee did acknowledge the substantial slowdown in GDP growth that took place in Q4, however they were keen to mention in the same sentence that labor market conditions improved further. The Fed was less upbeat about consumption, business investment and inventories than back in December and repeated that net exports have been soft.

    The formal statement also admitted that market-based measures of inflation compensation declined further, but also mentioned that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. The FOMC added that inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of further declines in energy prices.

    In response to the global headwinds, the Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook. In fact, the Fed dropped the phrase that the risks to the outlook are balanced.

    Interestingly, the FOMC also released an updated Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that added that the Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below the 2% objective. Making this amendment at a time of low inflation is clearly aimed at appeasing the doves who are losing patience with the continued undershoot.

    While the FOMC formally keeps the door open to a March hike, the enthusiasm of December appears to have faded.”
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