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Forex Mart Daily Analyisis

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by amittimothy, May 23, 2016.

  1. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
    A temporary low is in place at 0.7648 in EUR/GBP. As noted before, we're looking for strong support from 0.7651 to bring rebound. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 0.7946 resistance first. Break will confirm that the corrective pull back fro 0.8116 has completed and bring retest of this high. However, sustained trading below 0.7651 will carry larger bearish indication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6981 to 0.8116 at 0.7415.
    In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.9799 (2008 high) should have completed at 0.6935, inside key support zone of 0.6535/7250. 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 0.6935 at 0.8029 is already met and EUR/GBP turned into consolidation. Medium term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.7651 support holds. Firm break of 0.8116 will target 61.8% retracement at 0.8705. However, considering that EUR/GBP fails to take out long term falling channel. Sustained break of 0.7651 will open up the case for extending the down trend from 0.9799.
     
  2. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD Forecast: consolidating at lows ahead of US data
    After a long weekend, volatility picked up in Asia, although the EUR/USD pair remains quietly consolidating within its latest range, a handful of pips above the 1.1100 figure. European equities opened with a soft tone, down modestly, although Asian shares are generally higher.

    Germany released another batch of positive data, as the unemployment rate fell by more than expected, down to 6.1% from previous 6.2% in May whilst Retail Sales in April surged by 2.3% compared with a year before. Later on the day, the US will release its Personal Income and Spending data, the May Consumer Confidence, and the Chicago PMI, generally expected to show signs of improvement.
    [​IMG]

    The EUR/USD pair 4 hours chart, shows that the bearish tone prevails, despite the absence of directional strength, as the price is being capped by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head south below their mid-lines. A daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 monthly low, stands at 1.1090 today, and a break below it required to confirm additional declines, with the 1.1040/50 region as the first bearish target, followed later by the 1.1000 figure.

    Given that the ECB will meet next Thursday and the US will release its Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday, seems unlikely that the pair will break further lower. To the upside, short term selling interest stands at 1.1150/60, so it will take a clear advance beyond this region to confirm a recovery up to 1.1200.
     
  3. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/GBP regains 0.7830 ahead of EMU GDP..
    After the ‘fat-finger’ move to the mid-0.7700s, EUR/GBP has quickly recovered and is now navigating the area of 0.7830 ahead of EMU data.

    EUR/GBP attention to ‘Brexit’, data

    The European cross keeps the bearish note today following a renewed bid tone around the sterling as opposed to the so far steady stance in the single currency. GBP found extra buying interest in response to latest poll results on the UK-EU Referendum, which showed the ‘Remain’ vote would be leading.

    Ahead in the session, UK’s house prices tracked by Halifax is the only release across the Channel, while EMU’s final GDP figures for the first quarter are expected to show the economy has expanded 0.5% QoQ and 1.5% on an annualized basis.

    EUR/GBP key levels

    The cross is now losing 0.42% at 0.7830 and a breakdown of 0.7754 (low Jun.7) would open the door to 0.7745 (20-day sma) and finally 0.7562 (low May 25). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 0.7906 (high Jun.6) ahead of 0.7947 (high May 4) and then 0.8119 (2016 high Apr.7).

    [​IMG]
     
  4. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Gold (XAU/USD)
    1284.29
    0.09
    (0.01%)
    04:42:23 (GMT)
    Start trading
    Sell
    Bid: 1283.99
    Ask: 1284.59
    Open: 1284.2
    High: 1285.12
    Low: 1281.8
    08:0016:0015. Jun1275128012851290
    prices continue to gain traction rising for a 6th consecutive trading session, and poised to test the May highs at 1,304. Softer than expected U.S. Retail Sales helped buoy the price of the yellow metal. Support on gold is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,252. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. The RSI (relative strength index) moved higher with price action reflecting accelerating positive momentum.



    U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in many with the ex-auto component up 0.4%, a little softer than forecast. There were no revisions to the 1.3% headline gain in April and the 0.8% ex-auto gain. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials increased 0.5% versus 0.9% previously.
     
  5. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Gold

    Gold (XAU/USD)
    1284.29
    0.09
    (0.01%)
    04:42:23 (GMT)
    Start trading
    Sell
    Bid: 1283.99
    Ask: 1284.59
    Open: 1284.2
    High: 1285.12
    Low: 1281.8
    08:0016:0015. Jun1275128012851290
    prices continue to gain traction rising for a 6th consecutive trading session, and poised to test the May highs at 1,304. Softer than expected U.S. Retail Sales helped buoy the price of the yellow metal. Support on gold is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,252. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. The RSI (relative strength index) moved higher with price action reflecting accelerating positive momentum.



    U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in many with the ex-auto component up 0.4%, a little softer than forecast. There were no revisions to the 1.3% headline gain in April and the 0.8% ex-auto gain. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials increased 0.5% versus 0.9% previously.
     
  6. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD recovers further, 1.1100 on sight
    The shared currency is extending its rebound from daily lows in the 1.09 area vs. the greenback, pushing EUR/USD to the current 1.1065/70 band.

    EUR/USD weaker on ‘Brexit’ vote

    Spot has quickly plummeted to the 1.0900 neighbourhood after the EU-UK Referendum showed the ‘Leave’ option clinched a tight win with nearly 52% of the votes, catching markets off-guard after poll results on Thursday were pointing to a ‘Remain’ victory.

    All eyes are now on the European markets, with German Bund yields tumbling to record lows and equity markets expected to trade deep in the red territory.

    In the data space, the German IFO is due, although its results should be largely ignored against the current effervescent backdrop.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    The pair is now losing 2.71% at 1.1075 and a break below 1.0913 (low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1259 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1296 (55-day sma) and then 1.1427 (high Jun.23).
     
  7. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    GBP/USD attempts a recovery to 1.37, might get sold into
    After a free-fall all the way to its lowest level since 1985, the GBP/USD pair seems to have found some support around 1.3200 region and recovered nearly 500-pips from session low to 1.3750 before fresh selling pressure emerged that took the pair back to below 1.3700 level.

    In a historic referendum on its membership with the European Union, UK citizens voted to leave the EU that resurfaced uncertainty surrounding its implication on the UK economy, taking the British Pound spiraling lower.

    The GBP/USD pair, however, managed to recover from lower levels after the BoE conveyed to take all necessary steps to ensure monetary and financial stability.
     
  8. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD


    The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.

    The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.

    The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.


    Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.

    A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

    The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.

    A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.

    Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.
     
  9. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD


    The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.

    The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.

    The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.


    Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.

    A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

    The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.

    A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.

    Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.
     
  10. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/JPY dipped 11 points this morning sending the yen into a tizzy as it touched 111.38. The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.

    More effective in weakening the yen has been monetary policy. Massive injections of money into the economy by the Bank of Japan in recent years helped push the Japanese currency to around 125 to the dollar in 2015. But its efforts to stimulate the economy this year, including a shock move to negative interest rates, failed to halt the yen's rise.
     
  11. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate overall. We have broken down below and uptrend line recently, and have even retested it for resistance. Because of this, I feel there is a significant amount of downward pressure in this market building up. However, today is Nonfarm Payroll Friday, and that means anything can happen. I would not be willing to buy this pair until we break out and above the former uptrend line. As far selling is concerned, I’m willing to sell on signs of weakness as they appear, as I believe the market will probably try to reach towards the 1.09 level below.
     
  12. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The USD/CAD pair fell significantly during the course of the day, but at this point in time we still see quite a bit of support just below, extending all the way down to the 1.2650 level. With this, and the fact that the oil markets don’t necessarily look healthy at this point, I believe that sooner or later we will see a turnaround in this market. We obviously won’t yet, as we are closing towards the bottom of the candle, but a supportive candle below is a buying opportunity as far as I can see.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Thursday, ultimately settling on a negative candle. However, I see so much in the way of support just below that I think we will bounce and eventually got above the 0.73 level. If we get a supportive candle, then it’s likely that the markets will go higher from there as well. Quite frankly, I have no interest whatsoever in selling this market as long as we stay above the “floor” that I see at the 0.70 level below.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Thursday, ultimately settling on a negative candle. However, I see so much in the way of support just below that I think we will bounce and eventually got above the 0.73 level. If we get a supportive candle, then it’s likely that the markets will go higher from there as well. Quite frankly, I have no interest whatsoever in selling this market as long as we stay above the “floor” that I see at the 0.70 level below.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD attempting to move higher on Thursday but was unable to recapture the 10-day moving average which is seen as resistance near 1.1051. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged which was largely expected. The ECB's easing door remains open following this morning's press conference, while Stateside, odds for a Fed rate hike at some point this year continue to help the yield differential benefit the greenback.
    Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line at 1.0920. Momentum is flat with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index printing near the zero index level, which generally reflects consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) continues to consolidate near the 40 level which his on the lower end of the neutral range and reflects consolidation in a down.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  17. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  18. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  19. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  20. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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