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Discussion in 'Market News' started by amittimothy, May 23, 2016.

  1. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    LACKING NEW IDEAS, G7 TO AGREE ON ‘GO-YOUR-OWN-WAY’ APPROACH
    A rift on fiscal policy and currencies is likely to set the stage for G7 advanced economies to agree on a “go-your-own-way” response to address risks hindering global economic growth at their finance leaders’ gathering on Friday.

    As years of aggressive money printing stretch the limits of monetary policy, the G7 policy response to anemic inflation and subdued growth has become increasingly splintered.

    Finance leaders gathering in Sendai, northeast Japan, sought advice from prominent academics, including Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, on ways to boost growth in an informal symposium ahead of an official G7 meeting on Friday.

    Participants of the symposium agreed that instead of relying on short-term fiscal stimulus or monetary policy, structural reforms combined with appropriate investment are solutions to achieving sustainable growth, a G7 source said.

    If so, that would dash Japan’s hopes to garner an agreement on the need for coordinated fiscal action to spur global demand.

    Germany showed no signs of responding to calls from Japan and the United States to boost fiscal stimulus, instead warning of the dangers of excessive monetary loosening.

    “There is high nervousness in financial markets” fostered by huge government debt and excess liquidity around the globe, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday.

    But G7 officials have signaled that they would not object if Japan were to call for stronger action using monetary, fiscal tools and structural reforms – catered to each country’s individual needs.

    That means the G7 finance leaders, while fretting about risks to outlook, may be unable to agree on concrete steps to bolster stagnant global growth.

    “I expect there to be a frank exchange of views on how to achieve price stability and growth using monetary, fiscal and structural policies reflecting each country’s needs,” Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters on Thursday.

    BREXIT HIGH ON AGENDA
    The risk of a British vote to exit the European Union in a June referendum, or Brexit, will be high on the agenda at Friday’s G7 session on the global economy.

    “A Brexit could, in the short-term, lead to turbulence in financial markets,” the G7 source said.

    In second-day talks on Saturday, the G7 finance leaders will discuss, among other topics, the need to boost cyber-security.

    While policymakers have long spoken about the need to enhance cyber-security as financial transactions become increasingly global, there is a growing awareness among G7 leaders that they need to take prompt action, sources familiar with the group’s discussions say.

    A cyber theft that hit a Bangladesh central bank account in February has led SWIFT, the global financial network that banks use to transfer billions of dollars every day, to warn that it was aware of a number of cyber incidents where attackers had sent fraudulent messages over its system.

    Source: Reuters
     
  2. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  3. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    BoC: Universally expected to leave rate unchanged at 0.50% - RBC CM
    Adam Cole, Head of G10 FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that today’s BoC (no press conference or MPR) is universally expected to leave rate unchanged at 0.50%.

    Key Quotes

    “Key events since the April 13th forecast update include non-energy goods export growth at flat y/y, soft private CapEx intentions for 2016 (-10.9% y/y for manufacturers,) and of course the impact of the Alberta wildfires.

    We expect the Bank to look through the transitory economic impact of the latter—Q2 growth will likely be downgraded at the next forecast round in July, while Q1 growth looks set to be close to their most recent forecast of 2.8% q/q annualized.

    The BoC is likely to note that movements in the Canadian Dollar (~2 cents stronger than assumed in April) are consistent with fundamentals, including commodity prices.

     
  4. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Eurozone credit recovery stuck in first gear - ING
    Teunis Brosens, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the bank lending to Eurozone businesses and households fails to accelerate beyond 1.5% in the first months of 2016

    Key Quotes

    “Bank lending to the Eurozone non-financial private sector appears to be stalling. While bank lending to businesses (adjusted for sales and securitisation) climbed 0.1%-point to 1.2%YoY in April, bank lending to households fell 0.1%-point to 1.5%YoY. In total, credit growth to the non-financial private sector is at an unchanged 1.4% for three months in a row now.

    While 2015 saw the long-awaited return to growth of Eurozone bank lending, 2016 has so far not brought a further acceleration beyond some 1.5%. While economic growth has spread throughout most of the Eurozone, credit still bears the scars of the Eurozone crisis. Bank lending growth remains strong in countries like Belgium (6.6%YoY), France (4.3%) and Germany (3.0%). But credit is still contracting (not even counting writeoffs) in Ireland (-4.5%), Portugal (-2.2%), Greece (-1.7%) and Spain (-1.8%). Deleveraging also continues in the Netherlands (-3.1%).

    In the meantime, M1, one of the best leading indicators for the Eurozone business cycle, fell to its first single-digit reading since February last year. But at 9.7%, money growth is still strong, and bodes well for consumption in the months ahead.

    All in all, today’s monetary data are rather uneventful, just as Thursday’s ECB meeting is probably going to be. Draghi can use these data as he sees fit: he can point to last year’s recovery of bank lending as illustration of the success of ECB policies. At the same time, he can argue that the continuing weakness of bank lending growth this year proves that more monetary stimulus is needed, and justifies the corporate bond purchases and the revamped TLTRO-ii program due to start in June.”
     
  5. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    US ISM Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.3 in May, stronger-than-expected..
    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) preliminary gauge of manufacturing activity in the US showed the sector expanded more than expected in May.

    ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in May from 50.8 registered in april and above the 50.4 reading expected.

    Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the third consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 84th consecutive month,according to the ISM report.

    The Prices Index registered 63.5, an increase of 4.5 points from the April reading of 59, indicating higher raw materials prices for the third consecutive month.
     
  6. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    BOJ Ex-Director: Kuroda should drop inflation target
    In an interview with Bloomberg, a former Bank of Japan (BOJ) executive, Kazuo Momma, noted that the bank should drop its two-year timeframe for inflation to avoid having to take more drastic action to reach the distant goal.

    Key Quotes:

    It’s already conducting very bold stimulus

    If they deploy more policies that defy common sense, they’ll need to do a certain amount of explaining and, above all, it will be difficult to discern the pros and cons

    I see no major risk to compel the BOJ to expand stimulus in the near future as risks in the global economy aren’t increasing

    There is little change in Japan’s economic fundamentals
     
  7. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Japan’s economy to growth just 0.3%; BoJ likely to ease further - Wells Fargo
    Analysts from Wells Fargo, forecast that the Japan real GDP will growth 0.3% during 2016 and 1.2% in 2017 and they see more easing from the Bank of Japan.

    Key Quotes:

    “Real GDP in Japan expanded 0.5 percent (1.9 percent annualized) on a sequential basis in the first quarter. The details were somewhat less encouraging, as the solid read was partially driven by a boost from net exports, while fixed investment spending contracted in Q1, marking the third sequential drop in four quarters. As a further reflection of the ongoing underlying weakness in the Japanese economy, real GDP grew just 0.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. We forecast Japanese real GDP growth of just 0.3 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2017.”

    “At its latest policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised financial markets by not adjusting any of its various rates or adjusting the pace of its quantitative and qualitative easing program. The surprise inaction may in part reflect a desire among BoJ policymakers to wait until the effects of the negative interest rate policy can be more fully evaluated. The risks of any near-term stimulus may have diminished as Japan postponed a 2 percentage point hike in the national sales tax until 2019. However, underlying inflation in Japan clearly remains weak.”

    “Moreover, BoJ officials lowered their inflation forecasts for 2017 in their April assessment. Looking ahead, we suspect that the BoJ will eventually look to ease monetary policy further until the inflation dynamics begin to firm in a meaningful way.”
     
  8. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Crude Oil is down over 80 cents at 48.07 as traders realize that supply outpaces demand with global growth falling. Brent Oil is down 73 cents at 49.62. The US dollar is always important when setting US crude oil prices; a stronger dollar makes oil imports highly expensive for other countries. The US dollar grew by nearly 1.3% from its recent lows, following the Fed’s indication of potential growth in US interest rates.



    Traders also fear that the US supply could begin increasing if the price of crude oil continues to trade in the range of $50 to $60 a barrel. Baker Hughes reported a second consecutive week of growth in the US rig count and it is indicating that US producers are establishing their footprints for potential growth at current crude oil prices.


    US crude slipped over 3% to $49.07 a barrel on Friday, thanks to growth in the US rig counts, a surge in the dollar, and traders’ concerns over US supply levels. International Brent oil prices declined 2.79% to just over $50 a barrel at the end of the latest session. (Economics Calendar)


    Economic data from Asia is presenting a bleaker picture regarding oil demand. China, the largest consumer of crude oil, imported less oil in the month of May than in several preceding months. Traders now believe that US crude oil will continue to hover around $45 to $50 a barrel in the short-term, due to the threat of growth in production.
     
  9. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Crude Oil is down over 80 cents at 48.07 as traders realize that supply outpaces demand with global growth falling. Brent Oil is down 73 cents at 49.62. The US dollar is always important when setting US crude oil prices; a stronger dollar makes oil imports highly expensive for other countries. The US dollar grew by nearly 1.3% from its recent lows, following the Fed’s indication of potential growth in US interest rates.



    Traders also fear that the US supply could begin increasing if the price of crude oil continues to trade in the range of $50 to $60 a barrel. Baker Hughes reported a second consecutive week of growth in the US rig count and it is indicating that US producers are establishing their footprints for potential growth at current crude oil prices.

    US crude slipped over 3% to $49.07 a barrel on Friday, thanks to growth in the US rig counts, a surge in the dollar, and traders’ concerns over US supply levels. International Brent oil prices declined 2.79% to just over $50 a barrel at the end of the latest session. (Economics Calendar)


    Economic data from Asia is presenting a bleaker picture regarding oil demand. China, the largest consumer of crude oil, imported less oil in the month of May than in several preceding months. Traders now believe that US crude oil will continue to hover around $45 to $50 a barrel in the short-term, due to the threat of growth in production.
     
  10. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    British Pound Dives Post UK Retail Sales..
    The British pound traded close to 1.5700 against the US dollar on many occasions, and failed to move above it. There was a major risk that the GBPUSD


    GBP/USD (GBP/USD)
    1.4196
    0.0081
    (0.57%)
    10:06:15 (GMT)
    Start trading
    Buy
    Bid: 1.4194
    Ask: 1.4198
    Open: 1.4116
    High: 1.4213
    Low: 1.4105
    16:0015. Jun08:001.4051.411.4151.421.425
    pair might crash down due to the failed attempts to clear the stated level. Today, there was a major release, as the UK retail sales data was published. It missed the market’s expectation, which ignited a nasty downside reaction. Almost all British Pound pairs crashed and traded lower after the release. There is a chance that the GBPUSD pair might continue to weaken moving ahead.
    UK Retail Sales

    Earlier during the London session, there was an important economic release scheduled in the UK. The Retail Sales, which calculates the total receipts of retail stores was released by the National Statistics. The market was excepting a gain of 0.4% in the retail sales in July 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was lower compared with the forecast, as it increased by 0.1% in July 2015.

    Looking at the year-over-year change, then the UK Retail Sales climbed by 4.2% in July 2015, compared with July 2014. This was also on the lower side, as the market was expecting an increase of 4.4%. The UK Core Retail Sales outcome was in line with the forecast. The market was expecting a rise of 0.4% in July 2015, compared to the preceding month, and the result matched the forecast. In terms of the yearly change, the UK Core Retail Sales increased 4.3% in July 2015, compared with July 2014, which was once again in line with the forecast.

    The report also stated that “Compared with June 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 0.1%. Increases were reported by department stores, other stores, household goods stores and non-store retailing offset by falls in predominantly food stores, textile, clothing and footwear stores and petrol stations”

    Technically, the GBPUSD pair is under a lot of bearish pressure, and as long as the pair is below the 1.5700 resistance area it remains at a risk of more declines. However, at the same time we cannot deny the fact that there is a major support area around 1.5600 where buyers might defend the downside in the near term.
     
  11. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Daily Forex Fundamental Overview.
    Fundamental Analysis
    USD

    "We do need to make sure that there is sufficient momentum (in order to raise rates). I don't know what the timetable is going to be to gain that assurance. But we really need to look at the data and I can't pre-specify a timetable so I'm not comfortable to say it's in the next meeting or two but it could be".

    - Janet Yellen

    The number of people applying first-time unemployment benefits in the US fell from 277,000 to 259,000, gradually beating the 277,000 forecast, as reported by the Department of Labor. Strong data suggests that the labor market is on the path to recover from its recent period of softness. Moreover, the governor of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen stated, that a lower figure of the Unemployment Claims indicates improvements in the labor market overall, having a greater impact than the poor payrolls data.

    In the meantime, the US Manufacturing PMI also showed signs of improvements, with the index rising from 50.7 to 51.4 in May. Despite such an increase, the index still remained below its 2009-2013 average of 54.1. The main gauge of weaker-than-average results were falling oil prices, hurting manufacturers connected with the energy industry by lowering demand for equipment in their sector.

    Finally, the US New Home Sales numbers were released, coming out worse than anticipated, with sales falling 6% to 551,000 units (annualized) in May. Moreover, the April's reading was revised downward, namely from 619,000 to 586,000, as reported by the Department of Commerce, also contributing to the poor situation.

    EUR

    "We stand ready to act by using all the instruments available within our mandate, if necessary, to achieve our objective. In particular, the ECB is ready for all contingencies following the UK's EU referendum."

    - Mario Draghi, ECB President

    Eurozone's manufacturing sector bounced surprisingly in June on slight support from the global economy, but the counter political uncertainty in the entire euro area has sparked more of a disappointment, driving down overall business growth in the economy. Market flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index PMI rose to 52.6 in June, from 51.5 in May and well above market anticipation of 51.3. However, the Markit Composite PMI index, which combines the manufacturing and services sectors, edged lower to 52.8 from 53.1 in May. This is the worst reading since January 2015. The consensus analyst estimate was 53.1.

    Meanwhile, growth in Germany's private sector ended the second quarter with a bigger-than-expected deceleration, a private survey estimated on Thursday, as a surprising upturn in manufacturing did not manage to offset weakness in services. Markit's Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services activity that accounts for more than two-thirds of the German economy, decelerated to 54.1 during the sixth month of the year, down from 54.5 seen in May, when it hit a joint five-month high. Analysts had predicted a mild downturn to 54.3 in June. The Services PMI fell to 53.2 in June from 55.2 in May, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 52.1.
     
  12. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Excellent Forex Mart's MT4 Terminal in the World
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  13. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Fundamental Analysis
    USD

    "We do need to make sure that there is sufficient momentum (in order to raise rates). I don't know what the timetable is going to be to gain that assurance. But we really need to look at the data and I can't pre-specify a timetable so I'm not comfortable to say it's in the next meeting or two but it could be".

    - Janet Yellen

    The number of people applying first-time unemployment benefits in the US fell from 277,000 to 259,000, gradually beating the 277,000 forecast, as reported by the Department of Labor. Strong data suggests that the labor market is on the path to recover from its recent period of softness. Moreover, the governor of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen stated, that a lower figure of the Unemployment Claims indicates improvements in the labor market overall, having a greater impact than the poor payrolls data.

    In the meantime, the US Manufacturing PMI also showed signs of improvements, with the index rising from 50.7 to 51.4 in May. Despite such an increase, the index still remained below its 2009-2013 average of 54.1. The main gauge of weaker-than-average results were falling oil prices, hurting manufacturers connected with the energy industry by lowering demand for equipment in their sector.

    Finally, the US New Home Sales numbers were released, coming out worse than anticipated, with sales falling 6% to 551,000 units (annualized) in May. Moreover, the April's reading was revised downward, namely from 619,000 to 586,000, as reported by the Department of Commerce, also contributing to the poor situation.

    EUR

    "We stand ready to act by using all the instruments available within our mandate, if necessary, to achieve our objective. In particular, the ECB is ready for all contingencies following the UK's EU referendum."

    - Mario Draghi, ECB President

    Eurozone's manufacturing sector bounced surprisingly in June on slight support from the global economy, but the counter political uncertainty in the entire euro area has sparked more of a disappointment, driving down overall business growth in the economy. Market flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index PMI rose to 52.6 in June, from 51.5 in May and well above market anticipation of 51.3. However, the Markit Composite PMI index, which combines the manufacturing and services sectors, edged lower to 52.8 from 53.1 in May. This is the worst reading since January 2015. The consensus analyst estimate was 53.1.

    Meanwhile, growth in Germany's private sector ended the second quarter with a bigger-than-expected deceleration, a private survey estimated on Thursday, as a surprising upturn in manufacturing did not manage to offset weakness in services. Markit's Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services activity that accounts for more than two-thirds of the German economy, decelerated to 54.1 during the sixth month of the year, down from 54.5 seen in May, when it hit a joint five-month high. Analysts had predicted a mild downturn to 54.3 in June. The Services PMI fell to 53.2 in June from 55.2 in May, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 52.1.
     
  14. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016
    The AUD/USD moved up 8 points to 0.7459 remaining just where the RBA wanted the currency to trade. A more positive mood hit the markets after stronger data printed in the morning session. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI missed forecast which sparked a rally on hopes of more stimulus from the PBOC. Chinese manufacturers reported the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions in four months in June amid economic weakness at home and abroad, with the Caixin China Purchasing Managers' Index coming in at 48.6.

    The reading is lower than May's 49.2, partly because output fell at the quickest pace since February. Figures above 50 indicate expansion, while those below signifies economic contraction. The June figure was the lowest since January, when the PMI dipped to 48.4, and marks the 16th consecutive month of contraction.

    Total new orders decreased in June for the second month in a row for manufacturers, driven by the seventh straight monthly decline in new export sales.

    Companies also continued to pare back staffing for the 32nd successive month at a rate similar to that in the previous four month.

    Fewer new orders contributed to a reduced amount of purchasing activity across the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, companies maintained tighter inventories, with stocks of both pre-production and finished goods falling, albeit at slower rates than in the previous month.

    The Australian dollar is sharply higher as investors sell off US dollars to balance their books at the end of the quarter.

    BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Kathy Lien says the move has been triggered by investors adjusting their portfolios at the end of the June quarter.

    “Managers of index funds and other similar equity market portfolios need to sell dollars and buy euros or pounds to bring their overall exposure back into balance,” she said.

    FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
     
  15. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016
    The AUD/USD moved up 8 points to 0.7459 remaining just where the RBA wanted the currency to trade. A more positive mood hit the markets after stronger data printed in the morning session. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI missed forecast which sparked a rally on hopes of more stimulus from the PBOC. Chinese manufacturers reported the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions in four months in June amid economic weakness at home and abroad, with the Caixin China Purchasing Managers' Index coming in at 48.6.

    The reading is lower than May's 49.2, partly because output fell at the quickest pace since February. Figures above 50 indicate expansion, while those below signifies economic contraction. The June figure was the lowest since January, when the PMI dipped to 48.4, and marks the 16th consecutive month of contraction.

    Total new orders decreased in June for the second month in a row for manufacturers, driven by the seventh straight monthly decline in new export sales.

    Companies also continued to pare back staffing for the 32nd successive month at a rate similar to that in the previous four month.

    Fewer new orders contributed to a reduced amount of purchasing activity across the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, companies maintained tighter inventories, with stocks of both pre-production and finished goods falling, albeit at slower rates than in the previous month.

    The Australian dollar is sharply higher as investors sell off US dollars to balance their books at the end of the quarter.

    BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Kathy Lien says the move has been triggered by investors adjusting their portfolios at the end of the June quarter.

    “Managers of index funds and other similar equity market portfolios need to sell dollars and buy euros or pounds to bring their overall exposure back into balance,” she said.

    FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
     
  16. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016
    The AUD/USD moved up 8 points to 0.7459 remaining just where the RBA wanted the currency to trade. A more positive mood hit the markets after stronger data printed in the morning session. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI missed forecast which sparked a rally on hopes of more stimulus from the PBOC. Chinese manufacturers reported the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions in four months in June amid economic weakness at home and abroad, with the Caixin China Purchasing Managers' Index coming in at 48.6.

    The reading is lower than May's 49.2, partly because output fell at the quickest pace since February. Figures above 50 indicate expansion, while those below signifies economic contraction. The June figure was the lowest since January, when the PMI dipped to 48.4, and marks the 16th consecutive month of contraction.

    Total new orders decreased in June for the second month in a row for manufacturers, driven by the seventh straight monthly decline in new export sales.

    Companies also continued to pare back staffing for the 32nd successive month at a rate similar to that in the previous four month.

    Fewer new orders contributed to a reduced amount of purchasing activity across the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, companies maintained tighter inventories, with stocks of both pre-production and finished goods falling, albeit at slower rates than in the previous month.

    The Australian dollar is sharply higher as investors sell off US dollars to balance their books at the end of the quarter.

    BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Kathy Lien says the move has been triggered by investors adjusting their portfolios at the end of the June quarter.

    “Managers of index funds and other similar equity market portfolios need to sell dollars and buy euros or pounds to bring their overall exposure back into balance,” she said.
     
  17. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate overall. We have broken down below and uptrend line recently, and have even retested it for resistance. Because of this, I feel there is a significant amount of downward pressure in this market building up. However, today is Nonfarm Payroll Friday, and that means anything can happen. I would not be willing to buy this pair until we break out and above the former uptrend line. As far selling is concerned, I’m willing to sell on signs of weakness as they appear, as I believe the market will probably try to reach towards the 1.09 level below.
     
  18. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/JPY dipped 11 points this morning sending the yen into a tizzy as it touched 111.38. The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.

    More effective in weakening the yen has been monetary policy. Massive injections of money into the economy by the Bank of Japan in recent years helped push the Japanese currency to around 125 to the dollar in 2015. But its efforts to stimulate the economy this year, including a shock move to negative interest rates, failed to halt the yen's rise.
     
  19. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 18, 2016
    The NZD / USD dipped 51 points to trade at 0.7147 after the release of Chinese data. Although GDP printed better than forecast in China it is still lower at 6.7%. China's June exports fell more than expected, while imports also saw a steeper fall than forecast, in a sign that the mainland's factory floors continued to slow.
    In June, exports fell 4.8 percent year-on-year percent, while imports declined 8.4 percent, percent, in U.S. dollar terms. In yuan terms, exports rose 1.3 percent from a year ago, while imports declined 2.3 percent, according to Reuters, which cited customs data.
    That compared with May exports in dollar-denominated terms tanking 4.1 percent on-year, more than double April's 1.8 percent fall, while imports edged down 0.4 percent, compared with April's 10.9 percent drop, according to Reuters reports.China’s economic growth held at 6.7 percent in the second quarter, beating the 6.6 percent expansion forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Figures for factory output, retail sales and new lending also topped estimates, while investment slowed. The U.S. also has a data dump coming on Friday, with gauges of household spending, inflation, industrial production and consumer confidence scheduled.

    The kiwi was down 0.6 percent, set for a 2 percent weekly loss. Bets on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting benchmark rates in August rose last session after the central bank said it will issue an unscheduled assessment of the economy next week.
     
  20. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Gold prices moved lower on Thursday following the decision of the BoE to keep rates unchanged. The central bank is expected to provide stimulus at its August meeting according to the statement released at the time of the decision. Gold was weighed on as another round of risk-on dents the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.Prices were unable to recapture resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,350. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line near 1,300.
    Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a sell signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the 9-day moving average of the spread. The index is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which is pointing to lower prices for the yellow metal.
     

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