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Forex Technical Analysis: Take a step back and see what the big picture is saying

Discussion in 'Education, Tutorials & Courses' started by ForexLive, May 20, 2016.

  1. ForexLive

    ForexLive Forum Member

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    A longer term view of the EURUSD Sometimes we get caught in the minutia of the shorter term swings. Non-trending periods can tend to do that as the focus is on the break.

    Continue reading...
     
  2. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Yes, I agree to this point .. As we are always supposed to check with the Trend and find out what Majority of Traders are doing and thinking .. and what Directions are they going to execute their positions.
     
  3. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD pops and holds
    The Euro had been declining against the US dollar over the past weeks, since it reached a most recent high at 1.16159 on May 3rd. The downward trend changed dramatically on Friday after Non-Farm Payroll data was released from the US. Market consensus was for another addition of approximately 160k new jobs; however, everybody was in for a surprise when the release came out at only 38k jobs. The market jumped from 1.1154 to 1.1300 in the space of 30 minutes.

    Job creation is an important data as it is a very good indicator of the state of an economy, therefore a strong growth in jobs shows a buoyant economy. This is bullish for the currency of that economy.
    In this case US job data is even more bullish for the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve has stated many times that it will be watching jobs growth very closely as an indicator to the timing for rising interest rates.

    Various directors at the Federal Reserve Bank have mentioned that the central bank considers that for the economy to be expanding there should be at least 150k new jobs created each month. Apart from last month's data at 123k, this level or above had been achieved on all months going back to August 2015. So it came as a particular surprise when this month's data was so off the mark and low.

    It also means that the Federal Reserve may have to put any further interest rate increases on hold until it sees job growth strengthening again. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech last night and mentioned that she still believed that gradual increases would be appropriate as the economy would continue to strengthen; something which remains to be seen.

    The price of EURUSD reached a high yesterday of 1.13921, so the market is obviously cautious about when the next interest rate hike may happen and is giving the word "gradual" from Ms. Yellen's speech more weight than other words.

    If you think the price of EURUSD will continue to increase then all you need to do is buy a Call option, which allows you to buy EURUSD at a pre-set price (strike), on a pre-set date (expiry) and for an amount of your choice.
     
  4. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD moved lower throughout most of the European and U.S. trading sessions as Brexit concerns have driven not just the pound lower, but the euro as well, and if the "leave" camp prevail, questions on the durability of the EU will quickly rise. The exchange rate was unable to move above resistance which is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.1288. Support is seen near the May lows at 1.1098. Momentum on the currency pair is poised to turn negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is about to generate a sell signal. The trajectory is downward sloping pointing to a lower exchange rate.



    The latest polling showing support for Leave rising once again. The last four polls have shown the Leave campaign ahead, and two with a five-point lead and one with a seven-point lead. The FT's poll tracker is presently showing 47% support Leave versus 45% for Remain.
     
  5. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD recovers further, 1.1100 on sight
    The shared currency is extending its rebound from daily lows in the 1.09 area vs. the greenback, pushing EUR/USD to the current 1.1065/70 band.

    EUR/USD weaker on ‘Brexit’ vote

    Spot has quickly plummeted to the 1.0900 neighbourhood after the EU-UK Referendum showed the ‘Leave’ option clinched a tight win with nearly 52% of the votes, catching markets off-guard after poll results on Thursday were pointing to a ‘Remain’ victory.

    All eyes are now on the European markets, with German Bund yields tumbling to record lows and equity markets expected to trade deep in the red territory.

    In the data space, the German IFO is due, although its results should be largely ignored against the current effervescent backdrop.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    The pair is now losing 2.71% at 1.1075 and a break below 1.0913 (low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1259 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1296 (55-day sma) and then 1.1427 (high Jun.23).
     
  6. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  7. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/JPY dipped 11 points this morning sending the yen into a tizzy as it touched 111.38. The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.

    More effective in weakening the yen has been monetary policy. Massive injections of money into the economy by the Bank of Japan in recent years helped push the Japanese currency to around 125 to the dollar in 2015. But its efforts to stimulate the economy this year, including a shock move to negative interest rates, failed to halt the yen's rise.
     
  8. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  9. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD attempting to move higher on Thursday but was unable to recapture the 10-day moving average which is seen as resistance near 1.1051. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged which was largely expected. The ECB's easing door remains open following this morning's press conference, while Stateside, odds for a Fed rate hike at some point this year continue to help the yield differential benefit the greenback.
    Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line at 1.0920. Momentum is flat with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index printing near the zero index level, which generally reflects consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) continues to consolidate near the 40 level which his on the lower end of the neutral range and reflects consolidation in a down.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. amittimothy

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  11. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  12. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  13. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    Turn over the financial instruments to the customer entrusted to the member firm.
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  14. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  15. amittimothy

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  16. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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