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FX monthly outlook - ANZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ suggested that macro growth is improved, but risk not.

    Key Quotes:

    "There are a number of shifts in the macro landscape in our view, including some stability in Asian exports, some likelihood that the G4 easing cycle is drawing to a close, the relatively calm response to CNY depreciation, and some solidity emerging in the global wage environment.

    The combination is a more growth positive environment, albeit not one which is risk positive. G4 currencies are likely to hold existing ranges, Asian currencies are likely to weaken further, and AUD and NZD’s frustrating price action is eventually likely to give way to more weakness. We expect the US data pulse in January and February to again take on heightened significance for markets as the timing of the second Fed hike allows the trajectory of the cycle to be more firmly approximated.

    The ECB’s easing is likely to delay any EUR recovery in response to better growth and the much improved fiscal and BoP positions. GBP continues to be caught in the crossfire between anticipated Fed normalisation and the ongoing easing bias at the ECB.

    For AUD and NZD, we argue that recent stability is unjustified given the environment. We do, however, also argue that some of the longer-term forces are turning more positive. In Asia, further depreciation is likely, with an easing of portfolio flows, foreign debt repayment, and hedging activity and increased resident outflows all likely to play a role.

    We have lowered our EUR and GBP forecasts, as well incorporating slightly less USD strength against MYR, THB, and VND. We have also introduced some AUD and NZD appreciation into the forecast horizon (2017) for the first time since commodity prices were rising."
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