FX Wars: The Fed Awakens - Rabobak

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained the key events ahead in good humour once again.

    Key Quotes:

    "Early tomorrow morning in Asia we will get to experience “FX Wars: The Fed Awakens”. (And Star Wars Episode VII is also out, apparently, for those who like that kind of thing instead. )

    Of course, that’s the main act today, and such a main main act that it deserves discussion above rather than below here. But there are still some other things happening until we get to that key event.

    For example, we’ve already had RBA Governor Stevens edging closer to a role in the FX Wars, though for the moment he is still one of those characters that you need to fill out an exciting battle scene, but who seem to be largely passive participants, rather than driving the action, like Wedge Antilles, for example. He’s clearly angling for a position on the periphery of the official poster for the next film by repeating clearly in public that the RBA “has room to ease policy further if needed”, and, more significantly, that there is “potential for further exchange rate adjustment”.

    We will also see final December PMIs from most of Europe (the Eurozone composite measure is expected unchanged at 54.2). Then there is UK unemployment (consensus: 0.8K change and an ILO rate of 5.3%). Following that is final November Eurozone CPI (consensus: 0.1% y-o-y headline, 0.9% core), and finally we also have US housing starts (seen up 6.6% m-o-m), building permits (seen down 1.0%), and industrial production (also seen down 0.2% with capacity utilization at 77.4%, not a level at which one would normally be tightening monetary policy – but then again these are no longer normal times). Then it’s the Fed. (And overnight, Q3 Kiwi GDP too.)

    Wherever you are, folks, make sure you get a good seat for the action (though as I said, Asia will have to wait until tomorrow morning). And, very importantly, May the Force Be With You"
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