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G20 and US economic releases to take the Centre stage today – Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at Danske Bank, notes that the G20 finance minister and central bank governors' meeting has started.

    Key Quotes

    “Earlier this week, the IMF called for 'a strong policy response, both national and multilateral' if downside risks materialise, while the OECD now also calls for an urgent policy response as global growth fails to pick up. In our view, we have not reached a stage of market turmoil that would trigger a global co-ordinated policy response but we will be watching the G20 meeting, see more in Market Turmoil, Policy Responses and Market Implications , 12 February.

    In the euro area, the first release of inflation in February is published with the German, French and Spanish figures. In Germany, we expect a decline from 0.4% y/y to 0.0% y/y mainly because the yearly inflation rate in energy prices will head lower, although the oil price in monthly terms has increased a bit from the lows in January. The move in the German figure should overall be in line with the aggregate euro-area inflation rate although we look for a smaller aggregate decline.

    In the US, core PCE inflation, which the Fed targets, is due for release. US inflation also continues to be subdued and we expect core PCE increased 0.1% m/m in January bringing the yearly inflation rate to 1.5% from 1.4%. Note that core CPI surprised on the upside in January bringing the yearly inflation rate to 2.2%.

    US consumer spending should show a strong gain in January in line with retail sales. The strong retail sales followed despite falling equities and somewhat weaker consumer confidence (though still at healthy levels). We estimate that overall consumer spending was up 0.5% m/m with personal income increasing 0.3% m/m.”
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