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GBP: Carney plays down “turn of the year” - MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that currently there is over a year’s gap between the Fed’s raising rates for the first time tonight and the BOE following – a period of time we view as excessive.

    Key Quotes

    “BOE Governor Carney has backtracked from his comment that a rate hike decision would come into sharper relief “around the turn of the year” He blamed the most recent drop in energy prices for that. Still, we doubt it will be too long into 2016 when the rhetoric from the BOE begins to change.”

    “The inflation data yesterday points to little reason for concern over downside inflation pressures. There are twelve categories in the inflation report and only three are falling; food & non-alcohol, transport and recreation and only five of the twelve have seen disinflation over the last three months. The core inflation rate drifted higher as well as the overall rate (0.1% vs -0.1%). At 1.2%, the core annual inflation rate is only 0.2ppt below the average between 2002-2007 when the BOE was actively raising rates from 3.50% to 5.75%.”
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