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GBP (finally) on the slide - NAB/BNZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at NAB/BNZ, suggests that they pull forward their lower GBP forecasts as EU vote nears and expects GBP/USD to slide below 1.40 while the EUR/GBP could slide towards 0.80.

    Key Quotes

    “It’s been a long time coming but GBP is finally and definitively on the slide. After doggedly climbing over 21% between the spring of 2013 and August 2015, GBP rolled over into the back end of 2015. The turn lower was the result of the emergence of slower economic growth and the Bank of England finally throwing in the towel on the idea of a UK rate rise anytime soon. This in contrast to the argument BoE Governor Mark Carney had been making on and off since mid-2014. GBP’s TWI has slumped by over 5% since November.

    As 2016 has started markets have continued to push back the timing of the first UK rate rise from Q2, 2016 to about the same time in 2017, with OIS not fully pricing in the first move until May, 2017. The Christmas and New Year break saw plenty of news coverage of the UK’s impending EU referendum, promised by PM David Cameron before end 2017 but with no date yet set.

    The prospect of a 2016, not 2017, referendum has been a key factor behind GBP’s recent plunge. We’ve had a lower GBP forecast profile for some time, but had been assuming a 2017 poll; we take this opportunity to pull that forecast GBP weakness nearer, finessing the levels.

    This and the deterioration in global trade, alongside softer construction data threatens to push Q4 GDP (due 28th Jan) to +0.3% or +0.4% q/q from +0.5% in Q3 and a run-rate of +0.7%/0.8% over the last two years. In addition PMI activity continues to slow. At its 14 January meeting the MPC voted 8-1 in favour of holding rates/QE steady, but still acknowledged EM-related financial market nervousness, likely lower GDP growth and oil price developments suggesting a slightly weaker inflation outlook. A still lower GBP will help. We think this will come via a higher EUR/GBP and lower GBP/USD, but may equally be seen against the likes of SEK and JPY.”
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