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GBP/USD / EUR/GBP outlook - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 8, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that in the UK, the main focus for the region will be the Bank of England’s MPC meeting Thursday.

    Key Quotes:

    "We expect the MPC to leave rates unchanged for an 82nd consecutive month. That leaves us waiting for the release of the minutes later this month for any details on how policymaker thinking has evolved. That said, our thinking about BoE policy has evolved in recent weeks and we have pushed back our forecast for the first rate hike to November 2016. With domestic cost pressures waning, growth indicators moderating, and ’Brexit’ concerns on the rise in some quarters, the MPC is likely to remain patient before feeling compelled to act.

    These developments have us rethinking our GBP view, at least for the first half of this year. Our bullish sterling outlook was largely predicated on a H1 rate hike—and a UK macro backdrop that was strong enough to support one. With that outlook now on the back burner, we see downside risks to our current forecast trajectory for GBP. IMM data has shown that leveraged accounts have moved back modestly into a net-short GBP position since November while risk reversals have become skewed toward GBP puts over this same interval.

    This suggests that while positioning is less hostile to a weakening of the pound’s fundamentals, the short interest has not become excessive. With cable trading near its lowest levels in nearly six years, the April lows at 1.4566 become the key pivot at the start of the week. A clear break lower could put a retest of the 2010 trough at 1.4231 into view. Similarly, we see further upside risk to EUR/GBP this week with a possible extension toward 0.76 looking increasingly likely."
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