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GBP/USD Hits Fresh Lows

Discussion in 'Market News' started by Daily.Forex, Jun 15, 2016.

  1. Daily.Forex

    Daily.Forex Forum Member

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    The Pound Sterling continues to be hammered as the “horse race” that is the Brexit decision nears the wire.

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  2. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Tuesday, slicing through the 100 day exponential moving average. However, there is quite a bit of support and noise just below the 1.12 level, so it’s likely that we will see quite a bit of volatility. Ultimately, we get the FOMC Statement coming out today and that will more than likely be what drives his pair more than anything else. With this being the case, I believe that we will test the support below, but if it holds it could be an excellent buying opportunity.
     
  3. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The British pound traded close to 1.5700 against the US dollar on many occasions, and failed to move above it. There was a major risk that the GBPUSD pair might crash down due to the failed attempts to clear the stated level. Today, there was a major release, as the UK retail sales data was published. It missed the market’s expectation, which ignited a nasty downside reaction. Almost all British Pound pairs crashed and traded lower after the release. There is a chance that the GBPUSD pair might continue to weaken moving ahead.

    UK Retail Sales

    Earlier during the London session, there was an important economic release scheduled in the UK. The Retail Sales, which calculates the total receipts of retail stores was released by the National Statistics. The market was excepting a gain of 0.4% in the retail sales in July 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was lower compared with the forecast, as it increased by 0.1% in July 2015.

    Looking at the year-over-year change, then the UK Retail Sales climbed by 4.2% in July 2015, compared with July 2014. This was also on the lower side, as the market was expecting an increase of 4.4%. The UK Core Retail Sales outcome was in line with the forecast. The market was expecting a rise of 0.4% in July 2015, compared to the preceding month, and the result matched the forecast. In terms of the yearly change, the UK Core Retail Sales increased 4.3% in July 2015, compared with July 2014, which was once again in line with the forecast.
    British Pound Dives Post UK Retail Sales

    The report also stated that “Compared with June 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 0.1%. Increases were reported by department stores, other stores, household goods stores and non-store retailing offset by falls in predominantly food stores, textile, clothing and footwear stores and petrol stations”

    Technically, the GBPUSD pair is under a lot of bearish pressure, and as long as the pair is below the 1.5700 resistance area it remains at a risk of more declines. However, at the same time we cannot deny the fact that there is a major support area around 1.5600 where buyers might defend the downside in the near term.
     
  4. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD recovers further, 1.1100 on sight
    The shared currency is extending its rebound from daily lows in the 1.09 area vs. the greenback, pushing EUR/USD to the current 1.1065/70 band.

    EUR/USD weaker on ‘Brexit’ vote

    Spot has quickly plummeted to the 1.0900 neighbourhood after the EU-UK Referendum showed the ‘Leave’ option clinched a tight win with nearly 52% of the votes, catching markets off-guard after poll results on Thursday were pointing to a ‘Remain’ victory.

    All eyes are now on the European markets, with German Bund yields tumbling to record lows and equity markets expected to trade deep in the red territory.

    In the data space, the German IFO is due, although its results should be largely ignored against the current effervescent backdrop.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    The pair is now losing 2.71% at 1.1075 and a break below 1.0913 (low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1259 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1296 (55-day sma) and then 1.1427 (high Jun.23).
     
  5. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  6. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD
    The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.

    The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.

    The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.


    Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.

    A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

    The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.

    A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.

    Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.
     
  7. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016


    The AUD/USD moved up 8 points to 0.7459 remaining just where the RBA wanted the currency to trade. A more positive mood hit the markets after stronger data printed in the morning session. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI missed forecast which sparked a rally on hopes of more stimulus from the PBOC. Chinese manufacturers reported the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions in four months in June amid economic weakness at home and abroad, with the Caixin China Purchasing Managers' Index coming in at 48.6.

    The reading is lower than May's 49.2, partly because output fell at the quickest pace since February. Figures above 50 indicate expansion, while those below signifies economic contraction. The June figure was the lowest since January, when the PMI dipped to 48.4, and marks the 16th consecutive month of contraction.

    Total new orders decreased in June for the second month in a row for manufacturers, driven by the seventh straight monthly decline in new export sales.

    Companies also continued to pare back staffing for the 32nd successive month at a rate similar to that in the previous four month.

    Fewer new orders contributed to a reduced amount of purchasing activity across the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, companies maintained tighter inventories, with stocks of both pre-production and finished goods falling, albeit at slower rates than in the previous month.

    The Australian dollar is sharply higher as investors sell off US dollars to balance their books at the end of the quarter.

    BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Kathy Lien says the move has been triggered by investors adjusting their portfolios at the end of the June quarter.

    “Managers of index funds and other similar equity market portfolios need to sell dollars and buy euros or pounds to bring their overall exposure back into balance,” she said.

    FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
     
  8. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  9. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate overall. We have broken down below and uptrend line recently, and have even retested it for resistance. Because of this, I feel there is a significant amount of downward pressure in this market building up. However, today is Nonfarm Payroll Friday, and that means anything can happen. I would not be willing to buy this pair until we break out and above the former uptrend line. As far selling is concerned, I’m willing to sell on signs of weakness as they appear, as I believe the market will probably try to reach towards the 1.09 level below.
     
  10. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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  15. amittimothy

    amittimothy Well-Known Member Trader

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