GBP/USD on its way to 1.4577?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is being pushed lower in a strong dollar environment after yesterday's FOMC and while markets see dollar repatriation and squaring of books in end of year flows.

    Investors will be happy with the narrative of a stronger dollar and the idea of gradual rate hikes which support dollar denominated assets exposing the downside in cable while the BoE will be watched in the New Year for possible rate hikes as we progress through the year.

    There is always the possibility now that the dollar could weaken off in the New Year as we progress within the first quarter should markets decide that there is room for downside in the US economy as global recovery continues to threaten the US economy's performance.

    However, "The rate hike from the FOMC yesterday was accompanied by the updated median federal funds rate from the 17 FOMC members. The ‘DOTS’ highlight the continued gap between the FOMC and the market. We believe now that lift-off is behind us, the risks are far greater that at some point over the coming months, market pricing is likely move higher to reduce the current large gap. That will be a key factor in supporting the USD in H1 2016," explained analysts at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi.

    GBP/USD levels

    Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained GBP/USD and attention is on key support at the 1.4897/60 recent low and Fibo. "Support at 1.4860 is regarded as the last defence for the 1.4577 April low and this is now our target...Currently intraday Elliott counts suggesting that rallies will remain capped by 1.5010/45, so we have lowered our stops to just above the 20 day ma. Key short term resistance is the 1.5279 resistance line and the 200 day ma at 1.5328."
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