GBP/USD sell-off extends on widening yield spreads, Carney eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP bears remain relentless and keep battering GBP/USD to fresh multi-year lows, after weak UK industrial data triggered the sell-off.

    GBP/USD drops 1 big figure

    The GBP/USD pair trades -0.72% lower at fresh five-year lows of 1.4434, losing sight of 1.45 handle completely. The cable keeps falling as the pound faces heavy selling pressure against its American counterpart following poor factory data from the UK added to the ongoing concerns over the British economic prospects and also poured cold water on the BOE rate hike expectations for this year.

    The UK manufacturing production fell by 0.4% m/m, after posting a same decline of 0.4% a month before. Markets expected a bounce to 0.1% growth. Total industrial production, which includes data on the extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea, also declined 0.7% in November, following a 0.1% rise a month before and compared to the 0.0% growth expected.

    Moreover, a renewed bout of selling interest in the cable seen over the last hours can be attributed mainly to the widening yield spreads between the shorter duration US and UK government bonds tilting in favour of the US treasuries. Yield differentials between 2 year US treasuries and 2 year gilts have widened in favour of US treasuries to their highest levels since 2006. This suggests the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BOE is getting more pronounced.
    Looking ahead, BOE Governor Carney comments on the monetary policy is eagerly awaited by markets, as he participates in a panel discussion titled "Legacy for Business Models and Financial Stability" in Paris.

    GBP/USD Levels to consider

    The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.4581/ 4600 (1h 100-SMA/ round number), above which 1.4623 (10-DMA) would be tested. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.4400 (psychological levels) below which it could extend losses to towards 1.4345 (June 2010 Low).
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