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GBP/USD volatility ahead on EU referendum noise?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 21, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    For the week ahead, it will be an important time for Sterling. An EU referendum date has been announced by David Cameron in Britain for 23rd June 2016 on whether to stay in the EU. While it is someway off, the pound will be under pressure due to the uncertainties that lie within such a proposal to leave the EU.

    Surprises along the way, such as Boris Johnson, London's mayor, reported earlier today campaigning to leave the EU, will give sterling traders a bumpy ride and could give momentum either way, while at the same time trying to juggle the conditions in the US and subsequent volatility in the greenback will prove a handful given cable isn't the least volatile cross on the board at the best of times, fraught with risks in aggressive swings from time to time. It will be an interesting open for Sterling, given Boris Johnson's popularity with the public in the UK, (tipped to be prime minister one day) his vote for a Brexit may well have transformed the referendum campaign.

    US dollar and key events for the week

    Meanwhile, we will turn heads in due course towards the other side of the Atlantic from the UK, while Fed speakers, Fischer (Tues), Brainard / Powell (both Fri), Kaplan / Bullard / Lockhart / Williams (all Wed), come to the table. So long as they are broadly balanced, the greenback should remain neutral outside any major surprises else where in the market while the key data for the week ahead trickle through as Advance Durable Goods on 25th and Housing data on 23rd and 24th in existing homes and new homes.

    However, we also have manufacturing, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. "On durable goods orders, The ISM manufacturing new orders sub-index managed to increase just outside contraction territory in January and industrial production of durable goods rose modestly, suggesting that manufacturing activity was better in January," explained analysts at Nomura.

    G20 Shanghai preview - TDS

    There after, the key event comes in the G20 in Shanghai on 26th and 27th Feb with a meeting of finance ministers¢ral bank governors. "Odds are rising that some form of statement is released acknowledging currency misalignment and stating that countries are "monitoring exchange rate developments," explained analysts at TD Securities.

    GBP/USD levels

    GBP/USD has been under pressure this month, losing the 1.46 handle and breaking the 20 dma last week at 1.4405 today.

    "We are viewing the recent high of 1.4665 as the end of the correction higher," explained Karen Jones chief analyst at Commerzbank. "The interim low at 1.4151 guards the January low at 1.4083. Below it lies the minor psychological 1.4000 region. The 1.3502 January 2009 low remains our primary target medium term."

    GBP/USD price action

    Meanwhile, there was a last minute recovery back to the 20 dma. Spot traded above the pivot of 1.4327 before official open, with a key objective being closes above R1 at 1.4406 with R2 at 1.4454 and R3 at 1.4533. A bearish spike to the downside on the open has S1 at1.4279, S2 at 1.4200 and the aforementioned January low at S3 1.4152 bid.
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