German economy posts 0.3% growth in final quarter of 2015 - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Carsten Brzeski, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that now it’s confirmed that the German economy ended the year with a decent growth performance in the final quarter.

    Key Quotes

    “Despite increasing external headwinds, the German economy grew by 0.3%. This is slightly less than the first estimate for the annual growth number had suggested and probably the result of an entire batch of disappointing hard December data. Compared with the last quarter of 2014, the economy grew by 2.1%. Working-day adjusted, 4Q growth was 1.3% YoY. Details of 4Q GDP will only be published at the end of the month but available monthly indicators and the statistical office’s statement suggest that domestic demand was the main growth driver. Government consumption, a bit of private consumption and another surge in the construction sector supported growth, while at the same time net exports were a drag on growth.

    Without any doubt, the performance of the German economy since 2009 has been impressive. In 27 quarters, the economy only shrank three times. Moreover, over this period, the economy moved from a purely export-driven model towards a much more balanced model with domestic factors currently shielding the economy against external headwinds.

    Looking ahead, the year 2016 could be more challenging for the German economy than many had expected. Not only due to the refugee crisis and increasing political uncertainty but mainly due to increasing external headwinds. On top of the well-known risk factor like slowing China and emerging markets or a still struggling Eurozone, low oil prices and the possible weakness of the US economy could give the German economy a hard time. In particular, any slowdown of the US economy could turn out to be a double whammy for Germany.

    The direct impact through weaker demand from last year’s most important trading partner and the indirect impact through a stronger euro are in our view currently the biggest risks for the German economy.”
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