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German IFO preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The dovish ECB and the rate cut from China last week triggered a broad based USD rally, leaving the EUR/USD oversold on technical charts around 1.1030 levels ahead of the German IFO survey readings due today.

    Risk of a weak data

    The ECB President Draghi last week acknowledged the German economy’s exposure to China. Germany’s exports to China are 10% of its total exports and the data released in the last few weeks have underscored this fact. Consequently, the IFO surveys – business climate, expectations, and current assessment – could surprise on the downside.

    A weak data in turn would mean the ECB needs to more and push up expectations of a bigger bazooka in December, leading to a break below 1.10 handle. On the other hand, the IFOs, if positive, could lead to a much needed technical correction in the pair.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    At the moment, the spot is trading around 1.1030. The immediate support is seen at 1.10 and the resistance stands at 1.10 (rising trend line). If the IFO readings are weak, the pair could witness a break below 1.10 and drop to 1.0954 (June 29 low). The next support is seen at 1.0916 (July 7 low), followed by a major support at 1.0868 (100% Fib exp of Aug high-Sep low-Oct high). On the other hand, a positive IFO reading could lead to a re-test of 1.10. A daily close above the same could open doors for 1.1170 (100-DMA).
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