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German IFO preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/USD steadies near multi-month troughs, although manages to hold above 1.06 handle on the back of a minor correction seen in the US dollar across the board. The recent streak of dovish comments from the ECB officials and the commodity sell-off continue to dampen the sentiment around the euro. In recent dealings, EUR/USD recovered losses after the German final GDP figures revealed that the economy grew at a moderate pace in Q3.

    While markets now await the German Ifo business surveys due to be reported at 0900 GMT for further momentum on the pair.

    Volkswagen Scandal and Paris terror attacks to weigh

    The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to remain unchanged from the 108.2 booked last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen lower at 112.3 from the 112.6 booked a month ago. The Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months – is also expected to tick lower to 103.5 versus 103.8 registered in October.

    Although the headline numbers are expected to remain at same historical high levels, there remains risk of a downside surprise as the uncertainty created by VW emission-scandal and the recent Paris terror attacks may negatively affect investors’ sentiment. Thus, performance on the trade and investment sector is expected to suffer, but this may be well compensated by the resilient consumption.

    A weak data in turn would confirm more action from the ECB next week with either additional QE or deposit rates cut on the cards, dragging the pair below 1.06 handle. On the flip side, the positive surveys could further aid the technical correction in the major.

    Analysts at TDS expect, “the German IFO survey to confirm a pick-up in activity in November. We are slightly more optimistic than consensus, and expect small ticks up to both the Current Assessment (TD: 112.8 vs Consensus: 112.4) and Expectations (TD: 104.1 vs Consensus: 104.0) indexes.”

    EUR/USD Technical Levels to watch on data

    The pair now tests the hourly 50-SMA located at 1.0646 levels, with the next hurdle in sight is located at 1.0674 (10-DMA) and from there to 1.0694/95 (Nov 18 High/1h 200-SMA). If the IFO negatively surprises, the immediate support seen at 1.0600/1.0593 (round number/ Nov 23 Low). Selling pressure will intensify below the last, dragging the pair towards 1.0519 (April lows).
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