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German Ifo Preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 23, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    EUR/USD is seen gathering pace as we progress towards the European open, with the latest German final GDP print doing little to help the EUR. While the underlying cautious tone prevalent in the markets keep the main currency pair well supported above the 200-DMA support placed at 1.1025.

    Attention now turns towards the German Ifo surveys, with markets expecting the German business morale to deteriorate further this month.

    Migrant crisis to weigh on German business sentiment

    The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to tick lower to 106.9 in February, from the 107.3 booked last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is also predicted to slip further to 112.1 from the 112.5 booked in January and the expectations index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - is also expected to drop to 101.9 from the 102.4 booked in Jan.

    Following a poor round of manufacturing PMI reports from the EMU and Germany, the German business morale is once again likely to get badly hit as investors continue to weigh the escalating migrant issue surrounding the Eurozone, while looming concerns over Britain’s EU-membership also acts as a drag on the business sentiment.

    A recent Ifo poll also showed that 40% of economic experts think that the influx of migrants will negatively affect the German economy. Only 23% see the influx as beneficial and 37% remained undecided.

    ING's Chief Economist noted, although the index "has lost some of its predictive power for GDP growth, the current assessment component still has the best track record in now casting real economic activity."

    Analysts at Danske bank explained, “Developments here relate closely to German manufacturing PMI as this survey includes responses from manufacturing firms. Therefore, we look for a modest continuation of the decline from January.”

    EUR/USD Technicals

    At session lows of 1.1025, the immediate support is placed at 1.1000 (psychological levels) below which at 1.0982 (50-DMA) could be tested. On the flip side, the pair finds the immediate resistance at 1.1049/50 (daily high). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.1083/87 (1h 50-SMA/ 5-DMA).
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