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German ZEW preview: What to expect in EUR/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair failed another attempt to 1.09 handle in mid-Asia and since then, keeping moving lower amid better risk conditions. The major breached the key hourly 200-SMA support located at 1.0878 in last hours following the release of dismal final German CPI figures and keeps lows near 1.0870 region ahead of a series of economic data from the Euro land. Next on tap is the German ZEW economic sentiment for January to be published at 10.00GMT.

    German ZEW sentiment to deteriorate in January

    The ZEW will release its Economic Sentiment Index for the next six months for Germany, as well as the Current Situation Index, reflecting institutional investors' opinions.

    Economic sentiment is seen heading lower to 8.0 in January from 16.1 measured in December, while the Current Situation Index is also expected to tick down to 53.0 from 55.0 booked previously.

    Dec ZEW survey showed business moods unexpectedly improved and the headline figures hit the highest levels in four months. Hence, last month the survey suggested that markets managed to weather the Volkswagen-scandal fallout and Paris terror attacks. Moreover, investors remained optimistic, despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) December 3 decision disappointed markets somewhat.

    Regarding today’s ZEW print, markets are less optimistic about an upside surprise as the recent global stock markets turmoil, China slow down fears and oil price falls are likely to weigh on the investors’ minds. Therefore, EUR/USD may come under renewed selling pressure on the data release.

    EUR/USD: Technical levels to watch on ZEW


    In terms of technicals, the pair is likely to keep the offered tone intact on a weaker ZEW print, finding immediate support at 1.0852 (50-DMA/ Jan 15 Low), below which 1.0800 (psychological levels) could be tested. A break below 1.08 barrier, selling pressure will accelerate drowning the major to 1.0787/ 69 (daily S3/ Jan 7 Low). Should the data surprise markets on the upside, the main currency pair would swing back higher to 1.09 handle, finding the next resistance at 1.0940/52 (Jan 18 High/ 100-DMA). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0984/1.1000 (Jan 15 High/ round number).
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