Global economy: average growth, the best to expect – Wells Fargo

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - Analysts from Wells Fargo wrote in its Monthly Economic Outlook that “average” rates of growth may be the best the global economy can expect for the foreseeable future.

    Key Quotes:

    “Recently released data suggest that global economic growth continues to grind forward at a modest rate and we forecast a continued modest pace of global expansion.”

    “If our forecast of 1.7 percent real GDP growth (Eurozone) in the third quarter is realized, it would mark the strongest year-over-year rate of growth in more than four years. That said, most observers would not consider 1.7 percent growth to be especially “robust.” Moreover, the level of real GDP in the Eurozone would still remain below its Q1 2008 peak.”

    “Real GDP growth in China has slowed over the past two years, and we look for further deceleration. That said, we do not expect the Chinese economy to completely collapse because authorities have the policy ability to respond to any sharp downturn that could develop in the economy.”

    “We now see (in the US) that the bulk of the inventory correction is behind us, but still look for real GDP to expand at a 2.6 percent pace in the fourth quarter and look for 2.5 percent growth in 2016.”

    “The global GDP growth rate we forecast for 2016 is a bit below the long-run average of 3.5 percent per annum. Although we look for global GDP growth to return to its long-run average in 2017, an extended period of above-average global growth does not look likely anytime soon.”

    “The populations of many advanced economies are aging rapidly, which will constrain their potential rates of economic growth in coming years. The phase of rapid industrialization is drawing to a close in China, and India is not yet ready to assume China’s mantle. Average rates of growth may be the best the global economy can expect for the foreseeable future.”
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