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Global monetary policy outlook – Deutsche Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at Deutsche Bank, presents the monetary policy outlook for the major economies across the globe.

    Key Quotes

    Fed: slower growth momentum and tighter financial conditions will lead the Fed to pause its rate rises. We now only see one hike this year, in December. Pace of rate rises should accelerate in 2017.

    ECB: expect more easing in March. The market is pricing another cut to the already negative deposit rate (recent ECB comments suggest exemptions may mitigate the cost to banks). We also expect policy easing aimed at supporting credit creation, e.g., frontloading or outright increase in size of QE programme, long-term cheap funding for banks.

    Bank of Japan (BoJ): surprised with introduction of negative rates. Expect further rate cut this year.

    Bank of England (BoE): first rate rise expected in November, but risk of delay.

    People’s Bank of China (PBoC): expect further rate cuts to support growth.

    EM: easing bias in Asia contrasts with end of easing / start of tightening in LatAm, parts of CEEMEA.”
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