Heads up on key data events - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 20, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura highlighted the key events taking place as we head into the Christmas break.


    "Next Week’s Headline Events (all times are GMT) 1. US: Q3 GDP third estimate (Tuesday 13:30), Existing home Sales MoM (Tuesday 15:00), Durable goods orders (Wednesday 13:30), Personal Income and Spending (Wednesday 13:30) 2. CA: Retail Sales MoM and GDP YoY (Wednesday 13:30) 3. UK: Q3 GDP third estimate (Wednesday 09:30), Current Account Balance (Wednesday 09:30) 4. JP: BOJ Minutes for Nov. 18-19 Meeting (Wednesday 23:50), BOJ Kuroda speech in Tokyo (Thursday 04:00), National and Tokyo CPI YoY (Thursday 23:30), Jobless Rate (Thursday 23:30)."

    "In the U.S., we expect Q3 GDP to be revised down by 0.4pp in the second estimate to 1.7%, from 2.1% on the back of lower-than-assumed inventory investment and a largerthan-expected trade deficit.

    The Pending home sales index, which usually leads existing home sales by a couple of months, has slowed recently, despite the fact that housing market data appear to have gathered momentum this year. We believe tight supply conditions should lead to increased construction of new homes, leading to home sales declining by -3.0% in November.

    On Durable goods orders excluding transportation, we expect a slight rise by 0.2%. November ISM manufacturing new orders sub-index entered contraction territory for the first time since August 2012 and industrial production of durable goods excluding transportation posted a slight gain, suggesting that the tepid pace of manufacturing activity carried through to November. A decline in orders for nondefense aircrafts could further weigh on overall transportation orders, and as a result, we forecast total durable orders were down by -1.7% in November.

    Personal Income should grow at a steady pace on the month given growth in nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings (we forecast an increase by 0.4% in November). In terms of spending, a likely sizable drop in energy spending will probably weigh on services and as such, we forecast personal spending rose only marginally by 0.2%."

    "In the UK, we expect the ONS’s third estimate of Q3 GDP to be unrevised from 0.5% qo-q, while a sharp widening trade deficit in the monthly data has been revealed and we thus expect the deficit to be driven to -£23bn in Q3. In Japan, we expect all-Japan core CPI inflation in November of 0.0% y-o-y, up marginally from -0.1% in October."

    "All-Japan core core CPI inflation should come in marginally higher at 0.8% y-o-y from 0.7% in October. November’s Tokyo core core inflation expanded significantly by 0.2pp y-o-y, however this largely reflected upward pressure from imputed rents, and it is unclear whether it will give a significant boost to all-Japan core CPI, given the small correlation between the two measures. We expect a reduced negative contribution from energy prices to also push up core CPI. In terms of unemployment, we expect a rate of 3.3% for the month of November."
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