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Historically, Dollar weakens after Fed hike - SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 14, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that history suggests there’s a chance that the dollar will weaken rather than rally after the FOMC announcement – particularly against the yen.

    Key Quotes

    “That’s what it has done after the first rate hike in each of the last three cycles and this one will be accompanied by a well-flagged dovish statement. But if it makes sense that Japan, with its huge stock of net external assets, ‘wins’ from post-hike dollar profit-taking, then it’s also understandable that Turkey’s historical reliance in portfolio capital inflows, has resulted in the Lira weakening at the start of each of those Fed cycles. That argues against simply assuming that the history of post-hike dollar correction can be extrapolated beyond the yen and perhaps the Euro. CAD, badly beaten up last week, still looks cheap vs NZD and AUD to me, but I may have to be very patient.”
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