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Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 15th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th November 2017.


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    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The sell off in global stock markets continued in Asia overnight, With Japan underperforming and the Nikkei closing with a loss of -1.57% as a stronger Yen added to pressure from profit taking as the year end comes into view. Concern over the rout in China’s bond market and the sell off in global commodities underpinned the decline. Oil prices continued to slide overnight, with the front end WTI future currently just barely above the USD 55.0 per barrel level. China’s 10-year yields breached 4% for the first time in more than three years yesterday, and while they are back below the key level amid a wider decline in Asian yields, there are fears more is to come. Yields in the U.S. and Europe also declined yesterday and with stock futures heading south bonds are likely to remain sought. The calendar today has the final reading for French Nov HICP and Eurozone trade data, but the focus will be on U.K. labour market and wage date, with BoE’s Cunliffe stressing late yesterday that the central bank needs clear pay growth evidence before hiking again. There is supply from Germany, which auctions 10-year Bunds after already selling 2-year Schatz notes yesterday and ECB speakers are also on the schedule.

    Japan’s GDP slowed to a 1.4% growth pace in Q3, nearly as expected following a revised 2.6% gain in Q2 (was +2.5%). Consumption spending fell 0.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) amid poor weather conditions, after a revised 0.7% gain in Q2 (was +0.8%). Business spending rose 0.2% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q2. Net exports added to GDP. This was the seventh consecutive quarter of GDP growth. The deflator grew 0.1% (y/y, sa) in Q3 following the 0.4% drop in Q2 and 0.8% decline in Q1. There was a flat reading (0.0%) in Q4 of 2016 and a 0.1% dip in Q3 of 2016. Hence, this is the first expansion in the deflator since the 0.4% rise in Q2 of 2016. USDJPY has slipped to 113.22 from 113.40 going into the report’s release.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • UK Average Earnings – Expectations – a 2.1% y/y rise in the three months to September, and a 2.2% gain in the ex-bonus numbers that would still be lagging some way behind inflation.
    • UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – unchanged at the cycle low of 4.3% in September.
    • US Retail Sales – Expectations – inching up 0.1% in October, with the ex-auto aggregate rising 0.3% following gains of 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively in September, which were also impacted by the hurricanes. Production and manufacturing data will also be of interest.
    • US CPI – Expectations – rise to 0.1%m/m for October from 0.5% last month and with the core up 0.2% as energy prices moderate.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 16th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Stock markets bounced back during the Asian session, and the Nikkei gained nearly 1.5% as technology and telecom stocks led the way and a weaker Yen added support. Profit taking seems to have run its course and traders are leaving concerns about the progress of U.S. tax reforms and China’s slowdown and credit burden behind and refocus on positive corporate earnings. U.K. and U.S. futures are also higher, suggesting that global markets are set to recover some of the losses from earlier in the week. Yields still dropped in Asia overnight and Bund futures climbed higher in after hour trade, with Eurozone peripherals in particular likely to benefit from the return in risk appetite. The EUR is down from recent highs, but still hovering around the 1.18 mark against the Dollar. The local calendar has U.K. retail sales data and the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for October.

    FX Action: USDJPY has traded firmer so far today, rising concomitantly with stock markets in Asia. U.S. equity index futures are also up after the USA500 posted its biggest daily loss yesterday in two months. The yen has been correlating inversely with global stock markets this week, as it is apt to do during phases of pronounced swings in investor risk appetite. The weakness in the currency today has in turn injected extra buoyancy into Japanese stock markets, with the Topix index outperforming most of its regional peers with a gain of just over 1%. News that two U.S. senators (Ron Johnson and Susan Collins) have publicly criticised the tax reform bill may limit the rebound potential of stock markets, at least on Wall Street.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • UK Retail Sales – Expectations – pick up to 0.1% for October, from -0.8% seen in September.
    • EU Final CPI – Expectations – unchanged at 1.4% and core at 0.9%.
    • Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Manuf. Sales – Expectations – Manufacturing Sales expected to fall down to -0.4% from 1.6% last month, while Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released for the first time.
    • US Jobless Claims, Production & Philly Fed index – Expectations – Jobless claims expected to dip to 235K, while Phily index expected ay 25.0 from 27.9 seen on October.
    • BoE and FOMC – BoE Governor Carney is due to speak along with MPC members Broadbent, Cunliffe, and Ramsden about economics at various public schools, in Liverpool. FOMC members Kaplan and Brainard are due to give a speech in Houston an d Michigan respectively.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 17th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The recovery on global stock markets continued in Asia overnight, with a round of positive earnings from U.S. companies reports and progress on the U.S. tax reform plan underpinning risk appetite. The Hang Seng outperformed with banks underpinned by optimism over new shareholding rules. Elsewhere gains were more muted however, and the Nikkei closed up 0.20%, while U.K. Stock futures are down, and U.S. futures narrowly mixed. Oil prices are slightly higher on the day and the front end WTI future is trading a USD 55.35 per barrel. A more cautious mood then on stock markets going into the European open and long yields declined in Japan and Australia. Bund futures extended losses in after hour trade yesterday, with Gilt under-performing and with BoE’s Carney repeating late yesterday that there will be more rate hikes, if the economy develops along expected lines, Gilts could well continue to underperform. Today’s data calendar has Eurozone BoE and current account data and Bundesbank President Weidmann is scheduled to speak.

    U.S. reports: revealed a surprisingly robust round of industrial production figures, with a 0.9% October surge after big upward revisions back through May, alongside a slightly larger than expected November Philly Fed drop to a still-solid 22.7 from 27.9, with a larger ISM-adjusted drop to 56.7 from 59.7. We also saw an unexpected 10k initial claims bounce to 249k in the Veteran’s Day week, though this week kicks-off the period of heightened volatility that extends through the MLK weekend. The October trade price figures proved weaker than expected despite oil import and food export price gains, perhaps partly due to the October bounce in the value of the dollar combined with some unwind of a prior hurricane-boost. The net upside surprise for the day’s reports was reinforced by a 2-point bounce in the NAHB index to 70, and a rise in the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index to 52.1 from 51.5.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • ECB – ECB Pres. Draghi is due to speak at Frankfurt European Banking Congress.
    • Canadian CPI – Expectations – rise to 0.1% m/m in October after the 0.2% gain in September. Furthermore, CPI is expected to dip to a 1.5% annual growth pace in October from the 1.6% pace in September (y/y, nsa).
    • US Building Permits – Expectations – increase up to a 1.247 mln rate from 1.215 mln.
    • US Housing StartsExpectations – increase up to a 1.185 mln rate from 1.127 mln.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 20th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Main Macro Events This Week
    After a couple of panicky moments in global equities over the past week, the markets will keep a wary eye on political developments. In Washington, the House passed its version of tax reform, but the process of reconciling that with a Senate bill could put a damper on the holidays. Political risks loom large in Europe too. Brexit remains a major uncertainty; Merkel has yet to form a government in Germany, while ousted Catalan leaders still have a chance in the December snap election. Trading should quiet this week, however, with the U.S. and Japan on holiday Thursday for Thanksgiving. There’s little on the economic calendars as well.

    United States: The economic calendar will be heavily front-loaded, especially on Wednesday ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend. That will make for a frantic action packed early week of data. Leading indicators are expected to rebound 0.4% (Monday) in October from their 0.2% decline in September. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is on tap for October (Tuesday), along with October existing home sales seen rising 0.7% to a 5.43 mln unit pace from 5.39 mln previously — in line with gains in other housing indicators in the month such as the NAHB index. The MBA mortgage market index returns (Wednesday), accompanied by October durable goods orders forecast to rise 0.5% vs 2.0% in September thanks to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation. Initial jobless claims should resume their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18 (Wednesday), while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October. Rounding out the week are Markit PMIs (Friday).

    Canada: In Canada the data and event docket is fairly thin this week. September wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.7% m/m after the 0.5% gain in August. Retails sales (Thursday) are projected to rebound 1.0% m/m in September after the 0.3% decline in August. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.8% m/m on the heels of the 0.7% tumble in August. The wholesale and retail reports comprise the final two reports that directly inform the forecast for September GDP. As-expected reports would be consistent with the projection for a 0.1% m/m bounce-back in September GDP following the 0.1% drop in August and flat reading in July. For the quarter, GDP is tracking around 1.8% (q/q, saar), which would match the BoC’s Q3 estimate from the October MPR. Hence, the data this week should be supportive of current expectations for a very cautious approach from the BoC to removing accommodation.

    Europe: The data calendar includes the second reading of German Q3 GDP (Wednesday), widely expected to be confirmed at 0.8% q/q. And the breakdown, which will be released for the first time, will likely show ongoing robust domestic demand, but also a contribution from net exports to overall growth amid a strengthening world economy. Looking ahead, preliminary November PMI readings (Thursday) as well as the German Ifo (Friday) could ease slightly, but are expected to remain at high levels, consistent with ongoing robust growth in Q4 and going into 2018. The economic calendar also has Eurozone consumer confidence, French national confidence data and Italian orders among others. Events include a German 30-year auction, the ECB’s account of the last policy meeting and a wealth of ECB speakers including Draghi, Coeure and Constancio. Draghi and Constancio in particular are likely to continue to defend the ECB’s line that despite stronger growth the economy and inflation in particular still need ongoing monetary support, while others including Bundesbank President Weidmann would have preferred a clearer commitment to an end date for QE.

    UK: Time is ticking on the next deadline — the December EU leaders’ summit — for the UK and EU to agree on Brexit divorce terms. There remains little sign that an accord will be reached, however, and many signs of deadlock — not just on the final financial settlement but also the Northern Ireland border issue, which is starting to look like a major sticking point, with Ireland threatening to block the Brexit process entirely. The calendar this week brings monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday), the November CBI industrial trend survey (also Tuesday), the Chancellor’s mid fiscal year budget (Wednesday), the second estimate for Q3 GDP (Wednesday), and, finally, the November CBI distributive sales survey (Thursday). The CBI surveys, being relatively narrow in terms of respondents, will largely be overlooked by markets, while the Chancellor’s room for fiscal manoeuvre is limited. GDP data is expected to confirm the preliminarily estimated 0.4% q/q and 1.5% y/y growth rates.

    Japan:In Japan, the September all-industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in at -0.5% from up 0.1% in August.

    Australia: In Australia, it is a busy week for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank’s Head of Financial Stability Kearns speaks at the Aus-China Property Developers Investors and Financiers event (Monday). Head of Domestic Markets, Marion Kohler, delivers a speech (Monday) to the Australian Securitisation Forum 2017. The RBA’s Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock is a panel participant at the Women in Payments Symposium. The calendar is empty of top tier data, with Q3 construction work done (Wednesday) the lone highlight.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 21st November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets rebounded from the weak session on Monday. Chinese shares in Hong Kong rallied on financial companies following, while the ASX 200 underperformed despite a weaker currency after dovish RBA minutes. U.K and U.S. stock futures are mostly slightly down, despite the positive leads out of Asia and reports that PM May is willing to double the “divorce” settlement to the EU to EUR 40 bln ahead of the December EU summit that could clear the way for early trade and transition talks. BoE’s Ramsden said last night that Brexit prospects are reinforcing the trend of declining productivity in the economy. In Germany there are more signs that another round of elections is underway, after Merkel said yesterday that whe prefers new elections to leading a minority government as both FDP and SPD still refuse to enter a coalition with the Chancellor. Germany’s political turmoil failed to dent confidence in the GER30 yesterday, but still has the potential to shake markets going ahead. Today’s calendar has public finance data out of the U.K.

    Market Summary: Trading was rather quiet to start the week, with little on the global agenda, and nothing on the US domestic calendar, to provide a spark. Markets were quick to shrug off the failure of German Chancellor Merkel establish a coalition government, while ECB’s Draghi continued to urge policy patience. Political uncertainty in Germany after news that Chancellor Merkel has been unable to form a minority government caused an early stir, weighing on equities and giving bonds a little bid. But, that was quickly shaken off after President Steinmeier stepped in to try and get parties back to the negotiating table. Beliefs the German economy was also strong enough to withstand any turbulence saw the GER30 rebound and Bund yields rise. Meanwhile, U.S. leading indicates leapt 1.2% in October, though reaction was typically minimal given the rebound from the hurricanes. Yellen also confirmed she plans to leave the Fed board as part of the expected handover to Powell. Canadian markets were generally hostage to these events, along with uncertainties over the U.S. political situation, and especially tax policies.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • RBA – RBA Gov Lowe speaks at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney.
    • UK Inflation & Public Net Borrowing – Expectations – Monthly government borrowing data expected at 6.6B Pounds. BOE Governor and MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook prior Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
    • Canadian Wholesale Sales – Expectations – a rise at 0.6% from 0.5% seen last month.
    • US Existing Home Sales Expectations – seen rising 0.7% to a 5.43 mln unit pace from 5.39 mln previously.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 22nd November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd November 2017.


    [​IMG] upload_2017-11-22_14-42-14.gif

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher after new highs on Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. Optimism over global growth continues to propel indices higher although the CSI 300 retreated slightly after yesterday’s gains, as yields spiked in China, while coming down in Japan, Australia, New Zealand. UK100 and U.S. stock futures are also higher, as are oil prices, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 57.68 per barrel. The European data calendar is pretty empty, with only preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon. Events include a German 10-year Bund auction and the U.K. budget, while in Germany Merkel’s search for a way out of the stalemate continues.

    U.S. equities are back at record highs after their opening lunge higher, propped up by a solid run higher in China on hopes regulators there will managed their shadow banking problems (Hang Seng rallied 1.9%) and hopes that Germany’s Merkel will extricate herself to form a coalition government without calling for new elections (German GER30+0.8%). That spilled over to a pre-Thanksgiving binge on Wall Street, paced by a 1% rally on NASDAQ and followed by 0.6-0.7% gains on the blue chip indices. Speaking of tech, Apple +2%, 3M +1.5% and Microsoft +1.3% are the Dow’s leaders on the upside, while Wal-Mart -0.7% is the deepest decliner. The VIX equity volatility index is 6.7% lower and back under 10.0, well off the 14.51 November high set amid tax cut plan divergence between the House and Senate. That fear now appears to be on the back-burner, though some heavy lifting remains to reconcile the two tax bill versions and sell the unified plan to the public before year-end. Meanwhile, the USDIndex remains around 94.0, while gold rebounded back over $1,283 and WTI crude has consolidated 1.5% higher near $57.92 bbl.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • UK Autumn Forecast Statement – Released yearly.
    • US Durable Goods – Expectations – rise 0.3% vs 2.0% in September due to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation.
    • US Jobless Claims & UoM Sentiment- Expectations –revised their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18, while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.
    • Oil Inventories Expectations – decrease by 1.4 mln barrels.
    • FOMC Meeting Minutes –

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG] upload_2017-11-22_14-42-14.gif

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG] upload_2017-11-22_14-42-14.gif

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 23rd November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with the CSI 300 selling off and losing nearly 1.90%, dragged down by bond markets with Chinese yields on sovereign debt but also top-rated corporate notes at the highest level in three years and the 10-year is approaching the 4% mark. More than USD 1 trillion of local bonds mature next year and the bond market rout will make is very expensive for companies to refinance as the deleverage push gathers pace. The Hang Seng dropped -0.32%, the ASX closed unchanged, while Japan was closed for a holiday. With the U.S. also out of the picture today trading is likely to be quieter than usual. UK100 futures are down ahead of a busy local calendar with second readings for German and U.K. Q3 GDP alongside preliminary Eurozone PMI readings as well as French confidence data and the ECB minutes for the last policy meeting, where the ECB announced its new QE program.

    FOMC minutes showed concerns over low inflation, with worries that some of the softness could be due to more persistent factors. Remember this uncertainty has recently been brought up by Fed Chair Yellen. The minutes to the October 31 – November 1 meeting said “with core inflation readings continuing to surprise to the downside…many participants observed that there was some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected.” While that worry was the general thread, there actually was considerable hemming and hawing on whether the weakness was more transitory or was becoming perhaps persistent, as well as what to do about it. Nevertheless, “nearly all participants” affirmed a gradual approach to raising rates, which supports market expectations for a 25 bp hike at the December 12, 13 meeting. Policymakers noted continued strength in the labor market, along with moderate household spending, as consistent with above trend growth. Outlooks on wage developments were more mixed, but overall growth was seen as moderate. There was nothing in the minutes to negate expectations for a December tightening, although the fears that low inflation might be becoming more persistent support beliefs the FOMC might trim its dot plot to two tightening in 2018, from the current three.: The dollar faded further after the FOMC minutes, which showed concerns over low inflation, with worries that some of the softness could be due to more persistent factors. EURUSD topped over 1.1825, while USDJPY sank to 111.15.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • German PMI – Expectations – the November manufacturing PMI falling to 60.4 from 60.6 and the services reading to 55.0 from 54.7.
    • EU PMI – Expectations –the November manufacturing PMI falling to 58.3 from 58.5 and the services reading to remain stable at 55.0.
    • UK GDP – Expectations – 0.4% q/q and 1.5% y/y growth rates.
    • ECB Monetary Policy Metting Accounts
    • CAD Retail Sales – Expectations – at 1.0% m/m in September after the 0.3% decline in August.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

    Joined:
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    Date : 24th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: : Asian stock markets moved slightly higher in quiet trade. The rout on Chinese bond and stock markets that dominated Thursday’s session faded and the Nikkei managed a 0.12% gain as the yen weakened. Chinese bond markets declined somewhat, Treasury yields climbed higher, underpinning the USD. With most U.S. investors out for the Thanksgiving holiday and markets closed Thursday, trading in Asia remained lacklustre even as Japan reopened. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 58.47. In Europe, the calendar still holds German Ifo investor sentiment, which could come in higher than expected after the surprisingly strong PMI readings yesterday. There seems to be come movement in Germany’s political stalemate with hopes that the SPD may take back its “no” to a coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU and ECB’s Couere said the deposit rate will stay at -0.4% for a long time.

    Canada’s drop in retail sales volumes adds another hit the September GDP outlook. Retail sales volumes fell 0.6% m/m in September after an 0.5% decline in August and a 0.3% fall in July, contrasting with the gains from January to June. The BoC tagged a fading child tax credit boost as a key driver of the Q1 and Q2 consumption gains and subsequent drop off. There was a 1.1% tumble in wholesale shipment volumes. There was a 0.7% bounce in manufacturing shipment volumes. The contribution from construction production could be mildly negative, as housing starts fell 2.8% to a 219.3k pace in September from 225.6k in August. But the outlook for mining, oil and gas production is upbeat. Energy export values grew 7.2% m/m in September. The manufacturing report’s petro and coal shipments measure improved 10.3% m/m in September. But while we’ve seen some disappointing reports of late, the BoC has projected slowing in the second half after the robust first half. And the slowing, at this point, looks to be close to what they projected in October. BoC speakers have been clear that the economy, along with uncertainty over NAFTA, has led them to a cautious stance on further rate increases.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • German IFO- Expectations – Business IFO falls by 0.1 to 116.6.
    • US Markit PMI – Expectations –the November Prelim. Manufacturing PMI rising to 54.8 from 54.6 and the services reading to 55.5 from 55.3
    • ECB Vice President Constancio and ECB Coeure speech

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 27th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    The end of the year is fast approaching. But, there is still a lot to be done over the next thirty days, with several important events and data reports to be assessed and digested before the markets can turn out the lights on 2017. One of the most crucial developments will be whether a tax reform bill can be crafted. Meanwhile, this week brings Fed Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing, JEC testimony from Yellen, and an OPEC meeting. Political uncertainty in Germany will be an undercurrent ahead of Brexit talks in early December, with the EU Leaders Summit in mid-December, as well as ECB and FOMC meetings. And, a variety of top tier data on growth, inflation, production, and trade will help fine tune outlooks into 2018.

    United States: There’s plenty in the U.S. this week to pique interest heading into December and year end. The holiday shopping season kicked off in style on Black Friday with strong retail spending, both in brick and mortar shops and online, with estimates around $33 bln, according to Customer Growth Partners data, which would be a 4.9% y/y pick up. Along with the focus on holidays, attention will turn to Congress which returns from the Thanksgiving recess and will set to work on the tax bill. Additionally, Fed Chair Yellen’s give her final JEC testimony (Wednesday). The Senate Banking Committee also begins hearings on Fed chair nominee Powell (Tuesday). The Beige Book is on tap too. (Wednesday).

    As for data, revised Q3 GDP (Wednesday) will be a focal point. The November ISM (Friday) is estimated slipping to 58.3 from 58.7. November vehicle sales (Friday). October new home sales (Monday) are expected to drop 10% to a 600k pace unwinding some of the hurricane-distorted 18.9% jump in September to 667k. November consumer confidence (Tuesday) is seen edging up to 126.0 from 125.9. October personal income and consumption (Thursday) will help further fine tune GDP forecasts, and will also be important gauges ahead of the holiday shopping season. Other housing data is slated this week includes the September Case-Shiller home price index (Tuesday), the September FHFA home price index (Tuesday), and October pending home sales (Wednesday). Construction spending (Friday) likely rose 0.7% in October after a 0.3% September gain. Also on tap is the November Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index (Monday), which surged 6.3 points to 27.6 in October, as well as the Chicago PMI, which is projected falling to 61.0 in November from 66.2.

    Canada: Employment, GDP and the BoC’s Financial System Review headline a busy week of data and events. GDP (Friday) is expected to reveal a slowdown to a 1.6% Q3 pace of real GDP growth (q/q, saar) from the 4.5% growth rate in Q2. A slowdown in growth after the robust first half has been well-flagged by the BoC. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in November after the 35.3k increase in October. The current account deficit (Thursday) is anticipated to widen to -C$20.0 bln in Q3 from -C$16.3 bln in Q2, as the nominal trade deficit ballooned in Q3. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September, as energy and commodity prices moved higher while the loonie lost value against the U.S. dollar. September average weekly earnings are due Thursday. The CFIB’s November Business Barometer sentiment measure of small and medium firms is due out Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada releases the Financial System Review on Tuesday. Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will take questions from the press.

    Europe: November seems to be ending on an upbeat note with plenty of reason for cheer. Confidence indicators have surged higher; the recovery remains on track; the ECB is still in a generous mood and there are glimmers of hope on the political fronts as well. This month’s round of survey data concludes with the European Commission’s November ESI Economic Confidence Indicator(Wednesday), which after the very strong PMI readings, is expected to show a marked uptick, especially as preliminary consumer confidence numbers have already came in much higher than anticipated. The German labour market in particular is looking increasingly tight and a decline in the November sa jobless number is anticipated (Thursday) of -7K, which would leave the adjusted unemployment rate at a record low of 1.5%. Overall Eurozone numbers meanwhile are also improving and the unemployment rate(Thursday) is likely to dip to 8.8% from 8.9% in September. The HICP rates anticipated to rise around 0.2%, which would bring the German rate (Wednesday) to 1.7%, the Italian (Wednesday),French (Thursday), both to 1.3% y/y and the overall Eurozone rate (Thursday) to 1.6% y/y from 1.4%. Though still below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability, growth indicators looking stronger than anticipated, making the ECB’s decision to extend the balance sheet once again and to leave QE open-ended, seem questionable. Indeed, there are more and more signs that while the ECB is reluctant to commit to a firm end date, in the central scenario the next QE program that ends in September next year, will likely be the last. The calendar also has Eurozone M3 money supply growth, French consumption, German retail sales and another updated for French Q3 GDP.

    UK: There is a risk of Brexit-related disappointment into the EU leaders’ summit in mid-December. While an FT report early last week (citing sources) attested that the EU and UK have a breakthrough in the works with regard to agreeing on divorcing terms, doubts have persisted. The EU’s Juncker said Thursday “we’ll see” as to whether there has been sufficient progress to move forward at the December-4 meeting between May, himself and EU chief Brexit negotiation, Barnier. This week’s calendar brings October lending data from the BoE (Wednesday), the November Gfk consumer confidence survey (Thursday) and the manufacturing PMI survey (Friday). The lending data expected to show steady lending to consumers, both unsecured and lending secured on dwellings, while consumer confidence to nudge lower, and the November manufacturing PMI report, to stay unchanged from November and indicate ongoing expansion in the sector.

    Japan: October retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in with a 1.0% y/y contraction after posting a 1.9% growth rate for large retailers. Overall sales are seen slowing to 0.3% y/y from 2.3% overall. October industrial production (Thursday) should rise to 1.5% y/y versus the previous 1.1% decline. October housing starts and construction orders are also due Thursday. The balance of releases come on Friday, with CPI figures headlining. The November manufacturing PMI, and November auto sales are also on Friday’s docket.

    China: official November CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to slip to 51.4 from 51.6, while the November Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) is penciled in at 50.7 from 51.0.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 28th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook:Asian stock markets headed south again, as declines and energy and mining stocks led shares lower amid a further drop in metal prices. Concern China’s regulators may limit the flow of funds into Hong Kong’s stock markets adding to pressure. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is suspending approval of mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% in Hong Kong listed shares, according to media reports. The Hang Seng declined -0.65%, the CSP 300 was down -0.22%, against minimal losses in Nikkei and ASX 200. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, as the U.S. tax debate gets underway. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 57.75. Today’s local calendar remains relatively quiet, but includes Eurozone M3 money supply, Canadian RMPI, US Housing Index, trade, consumer confidence, RBNZ Stability Report and lot of Fedspeeches.

    German import price inflation fell back to 2.6% y/y in October, from 3.0% y/y in the pervious month. Like the deceleration in HICP inflation that month the drop was largely driven by lower energy prices and excluding energy the annual rate actually rose to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y. So a confirmation that energy prices continue to play a dominant role in headline developments, but also that underlying inflation pressures are slowly picking up again even on the import price front.

    U.S. reports: revealed a surprising 6.2% October new home sales climb to a hurricane-boosted 685k rate that marked a 10-year high, following a trimming in September’s prior cycle-high to 645k from 667k. Home sales rose 1% in the south despite huge prior gains, though we saw larger 6%-30% October gains in the other three regions. A preponderance of upside surprises in the construction and factory-sensitive reports through early-2018 given disaster-related rebuilding activity, are still widely expected. The Dallas Fed index bucked this boost however, as well as a likely lift from rising oil prices, with a headline drop to a still-firm 19.4 from an 11-year high of 27.6 in October, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.6 from a 57.9 October cycle-high. A small November drop-backs has been seen in most producer sentiment levels, though still-robust levels suggest upside risk to 3.0% Q4 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q3 boost to 3.5% from 3.0%.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • US Consumer Confidence – Expectations – seen edging up to 124.0 from 125.9.
    • September Case-Shiller home price index and the September FHFA home price index
    • Canadian IPPI – Expectations –rise up to 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September.
    • Fed’s Dudley and FOMC Member Powell and Harker Speech
    • BoC Financial System Review – Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speech at 16:30 GMT.
    • RBNZ Financial stability Report

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  11. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 29th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian markets seem to have shrugged off North Korea’s missile launch and turned their focus to the progress of Trump’s tax cut plans, with a weaker yen, helping the Nikkei to rise 0.49%. the ASX is also up Hang Seng and CSI 300 are underperforming and struggling to hang on to marginal gains, and the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained for the first time in three days. China’s 10-year yield remained above 4% as the PBOC once again refrained from adding net liquidity. U.K. stock futures are down, despite reported that negotiators reached an outline deal on the Brexit “divorce bill”, which would lead the Irish border issue as the only obstacle to early trade and transition talks. Today’s calendar has Eurozone ESI economic confidence, preliminary inflation data out of Spain and Germany, U.K. money supply and credit growth as well as French GDP and consumer spending.

    Negotiators reached outline deal on Brexit “divorce bill”,according to Bloomberg reports.Cable surged nearly 100 points to 1.3325 following Bloomberg headlines (citing The Telegraph) saying that the U.K. and EU have agreed on divorce terms. EU leaders will still have the final say whether the offer is high enough to unblock talks on transition and trade agreements. There also remains the difficult and sensitive issue of the Irish border, but Irish Foreign Minister Coveney said U.K. and EU teams are discussing possible wordings for a commitment on the border issue, that would allow trade talks to move ahead. Ireland can still block the move at the December summit where heads of states will to sign off any possible deal.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • EMU ESI confidence – Expectations – 114.6 up from 114.0 in October
    • US Prelim GDP – Expectations – upward revision to a 3.2% rate of growth, versus the initial 3.0% print.
    • BOE Governor Carney Speaks at 14:00 GMT and BOE Ramsden speaks at 14:45 GMT
    • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies at 15:00 GMT

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  12. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 30th November 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th November 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The global sell off in tech stocks continued in Asia, Japanese markets managed to outperform, underpinned by financials and the Nikkei managed a gain of nearly 0.6%, but the Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, the CSI 300 1.3% and the ASX declined 0.69%, after the government announced an inquiry into banks. South Korean listed shares dropped after the central bank hiked interest rates. UK100 futures are heading south, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Data releases in Europe include Eurozone jobless numbers and most importantly preliminary Eurozone HICP readings for November.

    Sterling continued has extended its ascent into a third day, with Cable punching out a fresh two-month high of 1.3480 and EURGBP plumbing a three-week low. Reports continue to point to a deal-in-the-works between the EU and the UK on the final financial settlement, and there is also raised hopes that an agreement will be made on the Irish border issue (and so avoid the spectre of a Dublin veto). Elsewhere, EURUSD has remained buoyant, although has thus far remained below yesterday’s peak at 1.1882. USDJPY rose for a third straight session, logging an 11-day peak of 111.24. This is the biggest rebound the pair has seen in four weeks, marking a break in the down phase that’s been in place since November (both breaking above and closing above trend resistance yesterday). Strong gains have also been seen in EURJPY, which is up nearly 1% over the last day, along with GBPJPY, which has surged by nearly 2% over the last two days. The yen, which is generally regarded as the safe haven currency of choice, has clearly not been in demand despite the haemorrhage in tech stocks over the last day, and concerns about North Korea’s ongoing development of ICBM capability.

    Main Macro Events Today
    • EU CPI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October.
    • EU Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unchanged at 8.9% for October
    • US Unemployment Claims and PCE – Expectations –Unemployment Claims expected at 240K from 239K seen last week, while core PCE expected to rise to 0.2% m/m from 0.1%.
    • Last day of OPEC meeting
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  13. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 1st December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mostly higher as tech stocks recovered on Wall Street and key oil exporting countries agreed to extend production cuts. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperforming once again, after a weak Caixin manufacturing PMI reading. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, however, Japanese and U.S. long yields are down. Meanwhie, WTI crude languishes at the bottom of its intra day range, trading just above the $57.00 mark, as OPEC and Russia agrees to continue output caps through the end of 2018. The agreement will reportedly be reviewed in June of next year. This was the outcome most had been looking for, though with the market still overweight on the long side, profit taking may keep further gains out of reach until positioning returns to a more neutral state. Today’s calendar has final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings for November, which are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary readings. The U.K. CIPS manufacturing meanwhile is sseen steady at 56.5, unchanged from October.

    FX Action: USDJPY edged out an 11-day high of 112.69 in the early Asia-Pacific session, and has since remained buoyant. This makes it the fourth consecutive day the pair has risen. Yen weakness has been driving the move. EURJPY logged a four-month high, at 134.29, GBPJPY a two-month high of 152.52, and AUDJPY a 10-day peak. A flood of data releases were seen today out of Japan, the more salient of which from a monetary policymaker perspective, was that inflation remains benign, with the October CPI headline coming in a just 0.2% y/y and the core CPI version at 0.8% y/y, well off the 2.0% BoJ target. Other data included a solid outcome in the November manufacturing PMI, which rose to a 53.6 reading from 52.8 in the month prior, its best in 44 months. Capital expenditure rose a solid 4.3% q/q in Q3, while labour data showed that the job to applicant ratio rose to its highest since January 1974.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • EU & German Manuf. PMI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October.
    • Canadian GDP – Expectations – slowdown to a 1.6% Q3 pace of real GDP growth (q/q, saar) from the 4.5% growth rate in Q2.
    • Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – improve by 20.0k in November after the the 35.3k gain in October
    • US ISM Manuf. PMI – Expectations – slip to 58.4 from 58.7 for November.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  14. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 4th December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    The collision of two opposing forces on Friday put the markets in a lather as the Senate tax cut bill garnered sufficient momentum to pass by the skin of McConnell’s teeth, but offset by news that former Trump advisor Flynn plans to plead out to lying to the FBI and indicate he was directed (by someone) to contact the Russians. According to several reports, that “someone” now appears to have been Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, who has meanwhile been invited back before the Senate Intelligence panel. At least in the short-term, this was a clear victory for volatility for a change, which was one of the main beneficiaries, contributing to large swings in stocks, yields and the dollar. It seems that December has begun with a bang and the last month of the year is certainly setting up to be an eventful one ahead of the holidays and before we close out 2017

    United States: The U.S. economic calendar will feature a steady drumbeat of factory, trade, ISM services, ADP, productivity and credit data all setting the table for the main course on Friday — the jobs report. November non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 260k, with a 250k private payroll gain following the October 261k print. Factory goods orders are forecast (Monday) to rise 0.2% for October after a 1.5% gain in September. The trade deficit is expected (Tuesday) to widen to -$47.5 bln in October vs -$43.5 bln, while ISM Non-Manufacturing index is set to slip to a still-respectable 59.0 in November from 60.1. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday),along with the release of the private ADP employment survey. Q3 productivity is expected to increase 3.3% vs 3.0% in Q2 (Wednesday), allowing unit labor costs to slip 0.1% from 0.5%. Initial jobless claims may slip 2k to 236k for the December 2 week (Thursday). Rounding out the week after the payrolls report (Friday) will be preliminary Michigan sentiment and wholesale trade.

    Canada: The BoC’s announcement (Wednesday) is the focus this week. No change is expected in the current 1.00% rate setting. Taking into consideration ongoing uncertainty over NAFTA and the Bank’s desire to gauge the impact of this year’s 50 bp in hikes and upcoming mortgage rule changes, the next hike is anticipated in March at 25 basis point move. Meanwhile, a busy data calendar is on tap this week. The October trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September. Productivity(Wednesday) is expected to contract 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.1% dip in Q2, as hours worked growth remained firm but output growth slowed sharply. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September. Housing starts (Friday) are projected to slow to a 215.0k unit growth rate in November from the 222.8k growth clip in October. Capacity utilization (Friday) is on track to improve to 85.1% in Q3 from 85.0% in Q2.

    Europe: Political events move to the forefront again, as U.K. Prime Minister May is set to meet EU’s Juncker and Barnier on Mondayand Germany’s Social Democrats are inching closer towards formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel and her CDU/CSU alliance. SPD leader Schulz has a chance to put the issue to a vote at a party conference this week but as the last round of coalition talks showed, even the start of formal negotiations would not secure that there will be a deal at the end. Data releases this week are expected to confirm the stronger than expected growth trajectory. The final reading of the November Eurozone Services PMI(Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.2, with companies reporting swift job creation, but also a buildup of inflationary pressures that will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB. German October manufacturing orders (Wednesday) may be expected to correct -0.2% m/m , after the rise of 1.0% m/m in the previous month, but the overall trend remains very strong. Meanwhile German industrial production should still benefit from the robust rise in orders in previous months and is expected to have expanded 1.0% m/m in October. The data calendar also includes German trade data, French production, Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, with a EUR 2 bln 10-year Bund auction scheduled for Wednesday.

    UK: Monday’s meeting between British PM May and top EU officials will draw a lot of attention, as this is the juncture when an agreement on divorcing terms is now widely expected to be announced. The pound rallied by over 1% last week at the prompt of media reports suggest that both the UK and the EU have reached a concord with both the final financial settlement Britain will pay before leaving, to square exiting obligations, and the Irish border issue — the two thorniest issues of the three issues that comprise the overall divorcing arrangements (the other being the rights of EU and British citizens living in each other’s territory). Should this prove the case, talks on a post-Brexit trading relationship can begin, along with the possibility of a transitory period.

    The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the construction and service-sector PMI November surveys (Mondayand Tuesday, respectively). These will follow the much stronger than expected November PMI report for the manufacturing sector, released on Friday, which has offered fresh evidence of the impact that a competitive exchange rate and rising European demand have been having on the sector. Production and trade figures for October are also due on Friday.

    Japan: In Japan, November services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in edging up to 53.5 from 53.4 previously. Revised Q3 GDP (Friday)is forecast to improve to a 1.6% y/y pace, from the initial 1.4% reading. Also, the October current account surplus is seen narrowing to JPY 1,700 bln from 2,271 bln in September. November bank loan figures are also on deck Friday.

    China: China November Caixin/Markit services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 51.5 from 51.2, while the November trade report(Friday) should see the surplus narrow to $35.0 bln from $38.2 bln. November CPI and PPI (Saturday) should show some slowing in inflation and we estimate the former at a 1.7% y/y clip from 1.9%, and 5.9% y/y from 6.9% for the latter.

    Australia: The RBA is seen holding rates steady at the current 1.50% rate setting (Tuesday). The Q3 current account deficit(Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$9.0 bln from -A$9.6 bln. Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to expand 0.3% m/m in October after the flat reading in September. GDP (Wednesday) is expected grow with a 0.5% gain (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.8% improvement in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is anticipated at A$1.9 bln in October from A$1.7 bln in September. Housing investment(Friday) is expected to rise 2.0% m/m in October after the 2.3% drop in September.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  15. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 15th December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, U.K. futures are also in the red, following on from broad losses on European and U.S. equity markets yesterday. Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S. tax bill continues to linger and relatively dovish signals from ECB and BoE yesterday sent yields down, but failed to lift sentiment on stock markets and while ECB President Draghi insisted on the open ended element of the QE program, ECB’s Vasiliauskas said “it is likely that the economy won’t require any additional support”. EU heads of state failed to reach an agreement on the immigration crisis yesterday and Brexit talks will take centre stage today, with officials expected to pave the way for talks and trade and transition. The economic calendar quietens down with Eurozone trade data the highlight of the agenda.

    FX Update: The dollar has been traded mixed, posting fresh losses versus the yen and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, consolidating gains it saw yesterday versus the euro, in the wake of the ECB’s announcement and guidance, and holding steady-to-firmer against a raft of emerging-world currencies. The pound, meanwhile, is trading versus the dollar near the levels prevailing ahead of the BoE announcement and statement yesterday, having managed to recoup losses. USD-JPY is down, having ebbed back below 112.20, though has so far remained above yesterday’s nine-day low at 112.06. Mostly weaker stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, along with a solid reading from the latest quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence in Japan, which showed the best quarter for Japanese manufacturers since 2006, were factors that have been conducive for yen strength. EUR-USD and euro crosses consolidated losses seen in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. EUR-USD made time in a narrow range in the upper 1.17s. More of the same seems likely today. Sterling markets will pay particular attention to Brexit talks at the EU’s leaders’ summit.n.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • EU Trade Balance – Expectations – decrease in trade surplus,down to 24.4B from 25.0B euros.
    • MPC Member Haldane Speech at 13:15 GMT
    • Canadian Manufacturing Sales- Expectations – 0.8% from 0.5% from last month.
    • US Empire State index – Expectations – 20.0 in December from 19.4
    • US Industrial Production- Expectations – 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  16. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 18th December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Global markets can benefit from some early Christmas presents as major political uncertainties seem to be resolving. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the tax reform package and send it to President Trump before the weekend. Agreement between the EU and U.K. will move Brexit talks to the second stage. And, Germany’s SPD party agreed to exploratory talks on renewed cooperation with Chancellor Merkel. About the only hurdle could be Thursday’s elections in Catalonia. For bonds, the dovish policies from the ECB and BoJ, a less hawkish BoE, and still benign inflation, should keep a ceiling on rates. Trading will quiet into the weekend with early closes on Friday ahead of Christmas on Monday, with many markets still off Tuesday.

    United States: As the year starts to wind down, attention will remain on the tax bill. After much wrangling, it appears a bill will be passed after several GOP Senators indicated they would vote yes on the compromise version. The House is slated to vote Tuesday, with the Senate likely on Wednesday to give ailing Senator McCain time to get to Washington. As for data, all of the crucial reports are out of the way. Housing reports headline the economic calendar, which also includes revised GDP, December manufacturing numbers, income/spending, and durable goods orders. But the reports won’t really alter current outlooks for solid economic gains and still low inflation. Also, several of the reports, especially housing and durables, will still be impacted by disaster whiplash.

    Canada: In Canada, the data slate provides another round of figures for the Bank of Canada’s data driven approach to policy, which was back in the spotlight last week after the Governor said “caution” in not a code word for on hold.Hence the anticipation remains that they will hold steady in January, hike 25 basis points in March to 1.25% and implement two more moves later in 2018 to gradually lift the policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2018. The economic data this week will be scrutinised for clues that conditions will be/won’t be ripe for a rate hike at the January 17 announcement. Wholesale shipment values (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.5% in October after the 1.2% drop in September. October average weekly earnings, part of the establishment survey, are also due Wednesday. The CPI is expected to rise 0.2.% in November (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.5% in October after the weak 0.1% gain in September. October GDP has the privilege of being the last report released this year and expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.2% m/m pick-up in September.

    Europe: Political events were relatively positive in Europe last week. The elections in Catalonia on December 21 provide a last focus on the political arena this week, especially as polls suggest a head to head race between the parties in favour and those against independence from Spain. This week’s round of date releases include the German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday), which we expect to nudge higher to 107.5. The German economy is bursting at its seems and the Bundesbank just upped its growth forecast significantly at least for this year and warned to sizeable wage growth ahead. ECB’s Draghi meanwhile continues to see not insufficient progress on inflation and wages and indeed, November Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5%, up from the previous month, but far below the ECB’s objective. More importantly, the breakdown is expected to confirm that higher energy prices were the main driving factor behind the uptick in the headline rate in November and core inflation is still at just 0.9% y/y. So plenty for Draghi to argue with, although whether the central bank can risk seeing inflation running away in the largest economy remains to be seen. More importantly perhaps, while growth forecasts have been revised up, the growth profile in Germany and the Eurozone suggests a peak in annual rates this year, so the ECB will start to scale back support when growth is already slowing down. The calendar also has German producer (Wednesday) and import price inflation (Friday) for November, where energy prices are expected to lift headline rates. Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as consumer confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone are also on the agenda, as are French consumer spending and national confidence indicators for Italy and France.

    UK: Sterling markets, as others, will be winding down for the Christmas and New Year holiday period while still digesting the less hawkish than anticipated guidance the BoE delivered following its MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week kicks off with the December CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a modest decline in the headline total orders reading, to +15 from +17 of the November survey. The CBI also releases its December distributive sales report (Wednesday). The third and final release of Q3 GDP data is up (Friday), along Q3 current account data.

    Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No changes are expected to rates or QE. Despite a much improved economy, inflation is subdued. Chief Kuroda is expected to remain patient for now. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected up 0.2% versus the 0.5% decline in September. .

    Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to its December meeting (Tuesday). Rates were held at 1.50%, as expected. The calendar contains no top tier data this week.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  17. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 19th December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan and South Korea underperforming as Japan decides to strengthen its missile system to defend against North Korea. RBA meanwhile showed increased confidence in the economic outlook, which weighed on bonds, but underpinned gains on stock markets. Technology shares underpinned gains in Hang Seng and CSI 300. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher and the risk on theme continues as U.S. tax reform hopes underpins sentiment. European peripheral bond markets outperformed yesterday underpinned by Portugal’s ratings upgrade, but with Spain outperforming on both bond and stock markets. Today’s data round includes German Ifo confidence for December, which is expected to fall back slightly. Eurozone construction output and wage data are also due.

    FX Update:Narrow ranges have been prevailing, and more of the same looks likely, though there could be some chop around data releases and news developments, with moves prone to be exaggerated by thin market conditions. All the dollar pairings we track are showing less than a 0.2% range so far today. USDJPY’s range has been centring around 112.50, while EURUSD has managed to drift up from around 1.1775-80 toward the 1.1800 level. Cable is also moderately higher, though, like EURUSD, remains comfortably below its high from yesterday. Focus remains on the U.S. tax overhaul bill, with the House expected to vote on it today and the Senate tomorrow, with indications suggesting that a successful passage is on. The December German Ifo business climate survey is also due later.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – nudge higher to 107.5 after the surprise uptick in December PMIs and ongoing positive trends in manufacturing orders.
    • EU Labour cost- Expectations – 2.0% from 0.8% in Q2.
    • US Housing Starts – Expectations – 1.250 mln after the 13.7% October jump to 1.290 mln.
    • FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  18. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 20th December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed. Japanese markets managed to pick up as banks benefited from the sharp rise in Treasury yields yesterday. The U.S. tax vote failed to spark a firework on markets, but after the sharp uptick in long interest rates across major markets yesterday and in Asia overnight hopes of a recovering in earnings for financial stocks have been underpinning equities and U.S. stock futures are also up. UK100 futures meanwhile are in the red however. Treasury yields meanwhile dipped slightly from Tuesdays highs in overnight trade and Bund futures moved up from lows. Today’s calendar has seen German PPI inflation down two ticks at 0.1% as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. Sweden’s Riksbank meanwhile is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at -0.50% today.

    US Tax Bill: The US Senate has approved the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades.The House of Representatives earlier approved the bill comfortably. Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. For final approval the legislation must go back to the House on today for a procedural issue. If it passes, as expected, it will be President Donald Trump’s first major legislative triumph. Critics say the package is a deficit-bloating giveaway to the super-rich.

    U.S. Data Reports: Revealed a solid November housing starts report that lifted already encouraging prospects for the Q4-Q1 housing sector, alongside a big unexpected drop in the Q3 current account deficit. For housing, November strength was skewed toward single family starts and activity in the disaster-riddled south and west, and the 3.3% headline starts rise included a solid 1.0% rise in starts under construction after upward revisions that lifted our Q4 real residential construction growth estimate to 10% from 9%, though we still expect a Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.5% after a Q3 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.3%. For the current account, the deficit fell in Q3 to just $100.6 bln from $124.4 (was $123.1) bln, thanks to a big rise in the surplus on primary income and a big drop in the secondary deficit, alongside an expected narrowing in the goods deficit and a slight widening in the service surplus.

    Fedspeak: Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari repeated his warnings from Monday in the wake of the FOMC decision that there remains slack in the labour market and the Fed should not raise rates. He also noted in a Q&A session that local regulations are driving up the cost of housing and hurting affordable housing.

    Main Macro Events Today

    BOE Carney Speech – The Governor is due to testify on the November Financial Stability Report (FSR) before the UK’s Treasury Select Committee. Scheduled to strt at 13:15 GMT.

    New Zealand GDP – The December Quarter GDP figure is expected to show a decline form 0.8% in September down to 0.6%. Data is reported at 21:45 GMT and is the first GDP posting since the new government was elected and the new head of the RBNZ was announced.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  19. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 21st December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets again traded mixed, with the boost from U.S. tax cuts quickly evaporating. Nikkei and ASX declined, Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved higher, as the BoJ left policy unchanged in the final meeting of the year. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are marginally higher as markets start to prepare for the long holiday weekend and the year end comes in sight. A EUR clearly above 1.18 against the dollar is doing little to boost the DAX as ECB asset purchases wind down today only to resume at much lower levels in January. Long yields continued to trade higher in Asia, but European yields managed to close off intraday lows on Wednesday and Treasury yields are down, so some stabilisation in quieter markets. U.K. consumer confidence dipped in December and today’s calendar still has French business confidence, as well as U.K. public finance data. Catalonia’s regional election will provide some interest although first results won’t be out until after the European close.

    German house price inflation: Data shows a slight cooling, with the annual rate in the Europace home price index falling back to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. Prices still rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.3% m/m in October and the annual index for apartment remained at a very strong 7.8% y/y. The ECB continues to insist that there are no signs of wide spread asset price bubbles, but the German housing markets clearly is showing signs of strain with prices in some areas significantly overvalued. Draghi is relying on national regulators to try and deal with the issue, but in light of the last housing bubbles and crisis there remain concerns whether this will be sufficient if the ECB continues pump cash in an already overheating market.

    U.S. Data Reports: The 5.6% U.S. November existing home sales surge to a cycle-high 5.81 mln pace beat estimates, following rates of 5.50 (was 5.48) mln in October and 5.37 mln in September, as sales climb above the 5.70 mln prior cycle-high rate last March. Sales in the south, which include hurricane sites in both Texas and Florida, soared 8.3% in November after a 1.9% rise in October, but declines of 1.4% (was 1.4%) in September and 5.7% in August. We saw a 0.8% November rise for the median price, but a 7.2% drop for inventories. We expect growth rates for existing home sales of a robust 20% in Q4 and a flat figure in Q1 as we partly give back the Q4 spike, after contraction rates of 12% in Q3 and 4% in Q2. Existing home sales are on track for just a 2% rise in 2017 and an estimated 3% rise in 2018, following gains of 3.9% in 2016 and 6.5% in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop. We have cyclical increases of 68% for existing home sales and 43% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 154% for new home sales, 171% for housing starts, and 153% for permits. The housing sector is well positioned for 2018, though growth in “existers” has been slim.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Final Q3 GDP – Expectations are for Q3 GDP to be confirmed at 3.3% following the impacts of the hurricanes feeding through, however, some estimates have a tick up to 3.4% and revisions for Q2 up to 3.2%. The data (along with Weekly Job Claims and PCE) is released at 13:30 GMT and is likely to have the biggest impact on the USD today.

    Canadian CPI – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2.% in November after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. But the CPI is seen surging to a 2.0% y/y rate in November from 1.4% in October, due to a difficult comparison with a low index level in November of last year (CPI fell 0.4% m/m in November of 2016). Gasoline prices surged in November compared to October, which is expected to drive total month comparable CPI growth. The loonie was weaker in November versus October, which could weigh on prices of imported goods. But gas prices shine the brightest, leaving the risk to the upside. The core measures were mixed in October. The CPI trim was up 1.5% y/y, matching September’s 1.5% gain. The CPI common grew 1.6% y/y versus a 1.5% increase. The CPI median slowed to 1.7% y/y from 1.8%.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  20. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Well-Known Member Trader

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    Date : 22nd December 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.

    German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.

    German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.

    U.S. Data Reports: U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.

    Main Macro Events Today

    • US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time. With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.
    • Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex



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