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India: Among the best in EM, but still vulnerable in current environment - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, India has been one of the best performers among Emerging Markets but is still vulnerable in the current global environment.

    Key Quotes:

    “After the 2014 general elections ushered in a BJP-led government with an overwhelming majority, investors were bullish on structural reforms (…) Modi has yet to live up to expectations regarding structural reforms, but we believe progress will be seen, albeit slow and incremental. Investors were simply too optimistic about the speed at which Modi could succeed.”

    “The economy remains robust. GDP growth is forecast by the IMF at 7.5% in both 2016 and 2017, and up slightly from an estimated 7.35 in 2015. GDP rose 7.4% y/y in Q3, a bit faster than expected. And this strong performance really stands out with growth slowing around the globe.”

    Inflation is moving towards the top of the 2-6% target range, and suggests that the easing cycle will remain on hold for now.

    “Fiscal policy is an ongoing concern. The budget deficit is expected to remain stubbornly high at around -7% of GDP this year, about the same as in 2014 and 2015.”

    “The rupee is one of the best performers in EM. In 2015, INR lost -5% against USD, behind only TWD (-4%) and CNY (-4.5%). So far this year, INR has moved to the middle of the pack, down -3% YTD. Our EM FX model shows the rupee to have weak fundamentals, however, and no country in EM is insulated from the global turmoil. USD/INR is gaining and on track to test and break above the all-time high near 68.85 from August 2013.”

    “Indian bonds have done well this year (…) With inflation likely to continue rising, keeping the RBI easing cycle on hold, we think Indian bond outperformance could ebb a bit."
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