INR: RBI holds its fire-power – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that the India’s RBI kept all key rates unchanged today, as widely expected.

    Key Quotes

    “Today’s statement reiterated that global and domestic economic conditions suggest that there is more room for policy accommodation going forward. However, this requires that inflation remains on its long-term disinflation trajectory.”

    “More specifically, the recent CPI acceleration has been consistent with the RBI projections, but CPI is expected to plateau after December. The RBI remains also sensitive to the potential wage rise for public workers the government will decide on in the February budget vote. The RBI noted that government commitment to fiscal consolidation remains key in this respect.”

    “All in all, we continue to see space for at least another 25bp cut in Q1 2016, provided that 1) the Fed lift-off does not cause excessive and, especially, prolonged market volatility, 2) inflation does not exceed the RBI’s projected trajectory, and 3) the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. This sets the earliest date at which we may see the RBI cutting again on February 2nd, 2016 or, even more likely, at the March/April meeting, after the government will have deliberated on the rise of public wages.”
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