Is that now it for EUR/USD bulls at 1.0942 highs after ECB?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 3, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD keeps teasing the upside and threatens deep and long-term stops through the 1.09 handle. EUR/USD has rallied over 2.75% alone today on the back of the ECB outcome that was quite a fiasco in respect to the build up and ECB let downs. The market was caught short and the euro tripped stops all the way from the lower end of 1.05-1.088 and now tests territory on the 1.09 handle, 1.0942 the high so far.

    Draghi behaving badly

    Draghi had built up a short euro platform over the last number of meetings by telling markets that he will need to extend the QE as one of over 20 options at their disposal to battle against deflation and negative global headwinds that threaten the EZ's growth outlook.

    FT messed up

    Before the FT leaked the wrong information that there would be no action from the ECB, the market was expecting in the general region of a €10-20bn increase of QE, but instead the market only got an extension of the end date of the current programme up to March 2017.

    The deposit rate was only cut by the lower end of the 10-20 basis point expectations to -0.3% as well. The ECB was bullish on the economy on raising its forecast of 2015 GDP to 1.5% from 1.4%. Inflation, however, for 2016 was lowered from 1.1% prior to 1.0% and 2017 has also been lowered from 1.7% by 0.1%. European stocks have subsequently been hammered as well.

    So where now for EUR/USD?

    One might expect failures on the 1.09 level, especially leading into tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls. However, we have seen a big miss in the ISM non-manufacturing today with actual at 55.9 vs 58.0 consensus and down from 59.1 prior. Not good when looking back at the ISM results in a contracting manufacturing sector in the US economy, 48.6 act vs 50.3 expected.

    However, the Nonfarm Payrolls was set up to be a good one yesterday on the back of the ADP report as a positive prelude for the data tomorrow and to the FOMC later in the month.

    Yellen was hawkish yesterday carving out the potential of a hike this month. Today she was testifying to Congress and stressed the mandate on jobs and inflations, but said that that the Fed might be close to raising rates above zero.

    EUR/USD upside levels

    Technically, levels are key while RSI is way into overbought territory. RSI (14) is at 80 on the hourly, but the daily is just back out of oversold with 1.1500 as a key target for the bulls to take the major back into more positive territory still and headed for the October highs.

    The daily 50 DMA at 1.0980 is a key level of resistance, but most of the hard work has been done by the bulls on the 1.08 handle and 1.0950 could be a tough area to penetrate through highs of 1.0942 so far at time of writing. 1.0820 would be a natural downside support area at the 200 SMA on the 4hr sticks.
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