It will take a surprise to lift the dollar - BOAML

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by ForexLive, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. ForexLive

    ForexLive Forum Member

    Sep 2, 2015
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    What BOAML expect from the FOMC minutes Despite the strong July employment report the USD struggled this week. Headline payroll growth was strong, but with the unemployment rate steady, wages stable, and the labor force participation rate ticking up, the report does little to force the Fed's hand and leaves them comfortably on hold for now. The resulting low vol, positive carry environment precipitated a further reduction in USD positioning as 2016 Fed expectations were little changed. For the USD to rally further, we need to see a more consistent trend of upside surprises that convinces the market Fed normalization will continue beyond just one hike. In other words, we need to see a more significant repricing of 2017 and 2018 expectations.

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