Japan’s CPI, household spending fall again reflecting poor wage growth; calls for more easing

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 27, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Japan's core consumer prices fell in October for the third straight month. Household spending slumped as well. Today’s data spells more bad news for the recession struck economy and raises pressure on policymakers to revive growth by pulling the economy out of stagnation.

    Government data today showed core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil costs, fell 0.1 per cent in the year to October. The data matched the median market forecast. The effect of falling energy costs led to the further dip in CPI. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided study this factor before determining whether or not additional monetary easing was required to meet its 2 per cent inflation target.

    Household spending fell 2.4 per cent in October from a year earlier, against a median market forecast for a 0.1 per cent rise, underlining poor wage growth.

    Japan's jobless rate fell to 3.1 per cent in October from 3.4 per cent in September; while tin October remained unchanged from the previous month at 1.24.

    With the worsening growth in mind, The BOJ might ease in January 2016

    BOJ had been optimistic that strong economic recovery would accelerate inflation to its 2 per cent target by early 2017. However, the current data looks far from promising. Japan relapsed into recession in July-September quarter. The third quarter GDP shrank an annualized 0.8 per cent in the July-September period after suffering 0.7 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. The poor GDP figure revealed "Abenomics is struggling to pull the economy out of chronic stagnation. Low oil price and weak household spending have weighed on consumer prices. The recently released data raises doubt whether that BOJ can achieve its inflation target by early 2017.

    Analysts polled by Reuters are of the opinion that oil costs may force the central bank to cut its quarterly inflation forecasts yet again in January.

    BOJ officials seem a little reluctant to raise their massive stimulus program. It seems the central bank will move only if persistent weak overseas demand hurt business confidence and in the process discourage companies from boosting investment and raising wages. The government has been putting pressure on companies to spend their record profits on wages and capital expenditure. There has not been much success so far as evident from the slew of data.
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