Japan’s GDP contracts as the country falls into technical recession - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the Japan’s first estimate of Q3 GDP came in at -0.8% q/q compared with -0.2% expected and a revised -0.7% in Q2.

    Key Quotes

    “Business investment, shrinking inventories, and net exports are the suspected drags, while private consumption likely gained traction. Pay no mind to those claims that Japan has fallen into a recession. Remember recession has no fixed definition, though plenty of rules of thumb. There is no reason to believe that Japan's business cycle has turned.”

    “When trend growth is 0.5% or less as the BOJ suggests, the normal variance of GDP could push it into contraction territory without signalling anything very meaningful. Importantly, Japanese officials, including BOJ's Kuroda are not going to respond as if it were a recession.”
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