Japan’s November CPI to remain flat, unemployment rate to be slightly higher

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Japan’s internal affairs ministry will announce consumer inflation data, jobless rate and household spending tomorrow. Japan's core consumer inflation is estimated to have to have remained flat in November as compared to the previous year. With the oil price falling further, achieving the Bank of Japan’s 2 per cent inflation target now looks like a distant dream. Shuji Tonouchi, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley echoed market belief in his statement, “"It will likely take longer than we had previously expected before we see core CPI rising steadily, because the pace of falls in oil prices has accelerated recently”.

    A Reuters poll of 21 economists estimates the core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, to stay unchanged in November from a year earlier. Core CPI had fallen 0.1 per cent fall in October.

    Household spending on the other hand will likely fall 2.4 per cent in November as compared to the previous year. Sales of home electronics and cars are believed to have been weak last month. Increase in food prices probably led people to refrain from spending on such items.

    Improvement in labor market

    Some good news can be expected tomorrow as the jobs-to-applicants ratio is likely come in at 1.25 in November. This reading, if registered will be the highest since December 1991 when the ratio was 1.31. The unemployment rate however is estimated at 3.2 per cent in November, higher than 3.1 per cent seen in October.

    According to BOJ's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey, labour market has tightened more in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The survey suggests scope for further improvement in the jobs market.

    The BOJ on 18th December kept its base money target under its massive stimulus program unchanged. The central bank however but decided to expand the range of assets it purchases to encourage firms to spend more on wages and investment.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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