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Japan to grow in 2016 - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 8, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - In respect to Japan, analysts at Nomura explained that they forecast a slight economic slowdown in 2015 Q4, but growing momentum thereafter.

    Key Quotes:

    "The Japanese economy registered q-q growth in the three key categories of private consumption, private capex, and exports in 2015 Q3. Looking ahead, we expect real GDP growth to slow to +0.6% q-q annualized in 2015 Q4.

    Given that the first set of preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed negative q-q contributions from input and work-in-progress inventories and product inventories were also down in October, we think that private-sector inventories will hinder real GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter in 2015 Q4, making a contribution of -0.5ppt q-q annualized.

    Meanwhile, the survey of manufacturers’ production forecasts and the historical deviation between forecasts and actual figures have led us to forecast growth in industrial production of only 0.6% q-q in 2015 Q4 even though October industrial production was up m-m.

    However, we expect real GDP growth to remain at 1.5–2.0% q-q annualized from 2016 Q1 onwards as inventory corrections and the household income climate improve alongside corporate earnings."
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