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JPY bearish as recession bug bites Japan again – Swissquote

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Yann Quelenn, Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank, notes that the Japan has fallen back into recession, although we believe that, for the time being, these results will not trigger any additional policy stimulus at Thursday's meeting while they remain bearish on the yen as fiscal and monetary arrows appear insufficient to boost the economy and structural reforms are largely awaited

    Key Quotes

    “The preliminary figures for the third quarter Japan GDP were widely expected, printing below expectations at -0.8% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive quarter that the economy has contracted. Japan has fallen back into recession.”

    “This data is definitely not good news for Prime Minister Abe, who is still struggling with his arrows to stimulate the economy through wages as retail sales are still not at a strong enough level to provide with sufficient traction for the economy. We believe that, for the time being, these results will not trigger any additional policy stimulus. In addition business spending fell 1.3%, more than the anticipated 0.4%.”

    “The pressure to ease will grow. Indeed the Bank of Japan’s official forecast of 1.2% for March 2016 seems impossible. As a result, major Japanese indices have dipped this morning at the opening session amid the atrocities in Paris on Friday night. The USDJPY is heading slightly upwards this morning. The fiscal and monetary arrows appear to be not sufficient to boost the economy. Structural reforms are largely awaited. We remain bearish on the yen.”
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