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JPY: Expected largest trade surplus in more than five years - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at BBH, suggests that it may not help Japan's case to intervene in the foreign exchange market when it starts the week by reporting what is expected to be its largest trade surplus in more than five years.

    Key Quotes

    “The median forecast is that Japan's trade surplus widened to almost JPY820 bln in March from JPY242 bln in February. When seasonally adjusted, the surplus will be smaller but is still expected to post a multi-year high.

    Two points need to be quickly added. First, a wider surplus does not mean stronger exports. Specifically, the median estimate is that exports fell 7.1% in March (year-over-year) after a 4.0% decline in February. Imports fell 14.2% in February and expected to have fallen around 16.5% in March. Second, contrary to allusions to Japan's reliance on exports, we note that as a percentage of GDP, its exports are roughly the same as the US; 13%-15%, not the 40%+ of some European high income countries.”
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