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JPY: FY15–17 GDP growth rate forecasts lowered – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at Nomura, have revisited their FY15–17 economic forecasts based on the first set of preliminary GDP estimates for 2015 Q4, other recently published statistics, and recent turbulence on financial markets.

    Key Quotes

    “We have cut our FY15 estimate for real GDP growth from +0.9% y-y (as of 29 January) to +0.7% to reflect contraction in 2015 Q4 and the likely impact of recent market turbulence on capex and consumer spending. We have lowered our FY16 estimate from +1.4% to +1.0% to reflect (1) the likely impact of recent turbulence on global financial markets, (2) downward revisions to our assumptions for overseas demand, and (3) the carryover effect from low growth rates in FY15 H2. For FY17, we have made a slight downward revision from -0.1% to -0.2% as we retain our assumption that the consumption tax hike will go ahead.”
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