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JPY: Inflation data unlikely to push BoJ into action - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that one should be forgiven for thinking that new inflation information could spur the BOJ into more action.

    Key Quotes

    “However, we continue to advise to look past the core rate, which excludes fresh food. This is the formal target, but to help guide policy in such a difficult time, it is clear that top BOJ officials are more nuanced than many analysts and media appear to appreciate. Excluding food and energy, Japan's CPI is a little more than 1%.”

    “Moreover, some officials argue that rent deflation is not a cyclical phenomenon and may need to be excluded, which would raise underlying inflation toward 1.4%. While this is below target, it is not the kind of level that fosters a sense of urgency.”

    “Despite the often repeated claims, Japanese officials do not regard the two consecutive contracting quarters as a "technical recession" (whatever that really means). If they thought it was a recession, they would respond. The small, inventory-led decline in Q3 is largely seen as an unfortunate statistical quick and a poor optic around such low trend growth.”
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